Related papers: Integrating influenza antigenic dynamics with mole…
We study an abstract model for the co-evolution between mutating viruses and the adaptive immune system. In sequence space, these two populations are localized around transiently dominant strains. Delocalization or error thresholds exhibit…
In the studies of dynamics of pathogens and their interactions with a host immune system, an important role is played by the structure of antigenic variants associated with a pathogen. Using the example of a model of antigenic variation in…
Seasonal influenza presents an ongoing challenge to public health. The rapid evolution of the flu virus necessitates annual vaccination campaigns, but the decision to get vaccinated or not in a given year is largely voluntary, at least in…
The seasonality of respiratory diseases (common cold, influenza, etc.) is a well-known phenomenon studied from ancient times. The development of predictive models is still not only an actual unsolved problem of mathematical epidemiology but…
Viroporins are small viral proteins that oligomerize in the membrane of host cells and induce the formation of hydrophilic pores in these membranes, thus altering the physiological properties of the host cells. Due to their significance for…
This study presents a novel approach at the intersection of genomic analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) to predict viral mutations and assess the risks of future pandemics. Through comprehensive genomic analysis, genetic markers…
Recently, an elegant approach in phylogenetics was introduced by Billera-Holmes-Vogtmann that allows a systematic comparison of different evolutionary histories using the metric geometry of tree spaces. In many problem settings one…
A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…
Models are often employed to integrate knowledge about epidemics across scales and simulate disease dynamics. While these approaches have played a central role in studying the mechanics underlying epidemics, we lack ways to reliably predict…
Viral kinetics have been extensively studied in the past through the use of spatially well-mixed ordinary differential equations describing the time evolution of the diseased state. However, emerging spatial structures such as localized…
Mutational escape from vaccine induced immune responses has thwarted the development of a successful vaccine against AIDS, whose causative agent is HIV, a highly mutable virus. Knowing the virus' fitness as a function of its proteomic…
The immune system normally protects the human host against death by infection. However, when an immune response is mistakenly directed at self antigens, autoimmune disease can occur. We describe a model of protein evolution to simulate the…
The rapid outbreak of bird flu challenges the outcome of effective vaccine for the upcoming years. The recent research established different norms to eliminate flu pandemics. This can be made possible with skilled experimental analyses and…
Timely and accurate forecasts of seasonal influenza would assist public health decision-makers in planning intervention strategies, efficiently allocating resources, and possibly saving lives. For these reasons, influenza forecasts are…
Chronic viral infections can persist in an infected person for decades. From the perspective of the virus, a single infection can span thousands of generations, leading to a highly diverse population of viruses with its own complex…
Under the hypothesis that both influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the two leading causes of acute respiratory infections (ARI), in this paper we have used a standard two-pathogen epidemic model as a regressor to explain, on…
The adaptive immune system engages in an arms race with evolving viruses, trying to generate new responses to viral strains that continually move away from the set of variants that have already elicited a functional immune response. In…
This paper analyzes a simplified model of viral infection and evolution using the 'grand canonical ensemble' and formalisms from statistical mechanics and thermodynamics to enumerate all possible viruses and to derive thermodynamic…
We study differential equations describing the spread of influenza A virus infection based on a mathematical model. We look for surface trajectories of the dynamical system in hand and their asymptotic behaviour.
Conventional wisdom holds that influenza A and B are such genetically dissimilar viruses that infection with one cannot confer cross-immunity to the other. However, our examination of the records of the past 25 influenza seasons in the U.S.…