Related papers: Tutorial for Bayesian forensic likelihood ratio

The forensic science community has increasingly sought quantitative methods for conveying the weight of evidence. Experts from many forensic laboratories summarize their findings in terms of a likelihood ratio. Several proponents of this…

When presenting forensic evidence, such as a DNA match, experts often use the Likelihood ratio (LR) to explain the impact of evidence . The LR measures the probative value of the evidence with respect to a single hypothesis such as 'DNA…

The likelihood ratio (LR) is largely used to evaluate the relative weight of forensic data regarding two hypotheses and for its assessment Bayesian methods are widespread in the forensic field. However, the Bayesian `recipe' for the LR…

Many resources for forensic scholars and practitioners, such as journal articles, guidance documents, and textbooks, address how to make a value of evidence assessment in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) when deciding between two…

In this article we provide a rebuttal against the possible perception that a single number, such as the Likelihood Ratio, can provide an objective, authoritative or definitive weight of evidence. We also illustrate the extent to which…

We introduce a Bayesian solution for the problem in forensic speaker recognition, where there may be very little background material for estimating score calibration parameters. We work within the Bayesian paradigm of evidence reporting and…

In 2016, the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI) published guidelines for the evaluation, interpretation and reporting of scientific evidence. In the guidelines, ENFSI endorsed the use of the likelihood ratio (LR) as a…

The likelihood ratio (LR) measures the relative weight of forensic data regarding two hypotheses. Several levels of uncertainty arise if frequentist methods are chosen for its assessment: the assumed population model only approximates the…

For several decades, legal and scientific scholars have argued that conclusions from forensic examinations should be supported by statistical data and reported within a probabilistic framework. Multiple models have been proposed to quantify…

The likelihood ratio (LR) is a commonly used measure for determining the strength of forensic match evidence. When a forensic expert determines a high LR for DNA found at a crime scene matching the DNA profile of a suspect they typically…

Lennard (2013) [Fingerprint identification: how far have we come? Aus J Forensic Sci. doi:10.1080/00450618.2012.752037] proposes that the numeric output of statistical models should not be presented in court (except "if necessary" / "if…

In many jurisdictions, forensic evidence is presented in the form of categorical statements by forensic experts. Several large-scale performance studies have been performed that report error rates to elucidate the uncertainty associated…

Several authors have explained that the likelihood ratio measures the strength of the evidence represented by observations in statistical problems. This idea works fine when the goal is to evaluate the strength of the available evidence for…

In statistics, there are a variety of methods for performing model selection that all stem from slightly different paradigms of statistical inference. The reasons for choosing one particular method over another seem to be based entirely on…

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the…

This paper develops a Bayesian approach for assessing equivalence and non-inferiority hypotheses in two-arm trials using relative belief ratios. A relative belief ratio is a measure of statistical evidence and can indicate evidence either…

The model evidence is a vital quantity in the comparison of statistical models under the Bayesian paradigm. This paper presents a review of commonly used methods. We outline some guidelines and offer some practical advice. The reviewed…

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…

A group of approaches for calculating forensic likelihood ratios first calculates scores which quantify the degree of difference or the degree of similarity between pairs of samples, then converts those scores to likelihood ratios. In order…

Motivated by the forensic problem of determining the strength of evidence of a continuously distributed measurement of evidence, in the situation of composite hypotheses of the prosecutor and the defence concerning a parameter of a…