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Related papers: Evidential Confirmation as Transformed Probability

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In this paper a new mathematical procedure is presented for combining different pieces of evidence which are represented in the interval form to reflect our knowledge about the truth of a hypothesis. Evidences may be correlated to each…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 L. W. Chang , Rangasami L. Kashyap

Within the framework of evidence theory, the confidence functions of different information can be combined into a combined confidence function to solve uncertain problems. The Dempster combination rule is a classic method of fusing…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-09 Tianxiang Zhan , Fuyuan Xiao

We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-22 Roger Sewell

The two statistical methods, namely the frequentist and the Bayesian methods, are both commonly used for probabilistic inference in many scientific situations. However, it is not straightforward to interpret the result of one approach in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-09-01 Alan H. Guth , Mohammad Hossein Namjoo

Probability theory and Dempster-Shafer theory are two germane theories to represent and handle uncertain information. Recent study suggested a transformation to obtain the negation of a probability distribution based on the maximum entropy.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-01-30 Xinyang Deng , Wen Jiang

We first show that there are practical situations in for instance forensic and gambling settings, in which applying classical probability theory, that is, based on the axioms of Kolmogorov, is problematic. We then introduce and discuss…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-07 Timber Kerkvliet , Ronald Meester

Causal inference from observational data often assumes "ignorability," that all confounders are observed. This assumption is standard yet untestable. However, many scientific studies involve multiple causes, different variables whose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-16 Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

While Evidence Theory (also known as Dempster-Shafer Theory, or Belief Functions Theory) is being increasingly used in data fusion, its potentialities in the Social and Life Sciences are often obscured by lack of awareness of its…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Guido Fioretti

Recent progress towards theoretical interpretability guarantees for AI has been made with classifiers that are based on interactive proof systems. A prover selects a certificate from the datapoint and sends it to a verifier who decides the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Stephan Wäldchen

Using instruments comprising ordered responses to items are ubiquitous for studying many constructs of interest. However, using such an item response format may lead to items with response categories infrequently endorsed or unendorsed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-02 R. Noah Padgett , Grant B. Morgan , Tim Lomas

We revisit Zadeh's notion of "evidence of the second kind" and show that it provides the foundation for a general theory of epistemic random fuzzy sets, which generalizes both the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions and possibility…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-17 Thierry Denoeux

Dempster's rule is a fundamental tool for combining belief functions from distinct and reliable sources. However, its intersection-based semantics imposes strong structural restrictions, which limits its flexibility in handling complex…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Qianli Zhou , Ye Cui , Zhen Li , Witold Pedrycz , Yong Deng

Testing hypotheses is an issue of primary importance in the scientific research, as well as in many other human activities. Much clarification about it can be achieved if the process of learning from data is framed in a stochastic model of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 G. D'Agostini

Between the two dominant schools of thought in statistics, namely, Bayesian and classical/frequentist, a main difference is that the former is grounded in the mathematically rigorous theory of probability while the latter is not. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-22 Ryan Martin

We formulate Dempster Shafer Belief functions in terms of Propositional Logic using the implicit notion of provability underlying Dempster Shafer Theory. Given a set of propositional clauses, assigning weights to certain propositional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Gregory M. Provan

The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical probability laws. In this paper, a new quantum dynamic belief…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-03-08 Zichang He , Wen Jiang

Automated reasoning about uncertain knowledge has many applications. One difficulty when developing such systems is the lack of a completely satisfactory integration of logic and probability. We address this problem directly. Expressive…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2012-09-13 Marcus Hutter , John W. Lloyd , Kee Siong Ng , William T. B. Uther

By analyzing the relationships among chance, weight of evidence and degree of beliefwe show that the assertion "probability functions are special cases of belief functions" and the assertion "Dempster's rule can be used to combine belief…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Pei Wang

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel

Bayesian inference affords scientists with powerful tools for testing hypotheses. One of these tools is the Bayes factor, which indexes the extent to which support for one hypothesis over another is updated after seeing the data. Part of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-11 Thomas J. Faulkenberry