Related papers: Probability Judgement in Artificial Intelligence
When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…
A considerable body of work in AI has been concerned with aggregating measures of confirmatory and disconfirmatory evidence for a common set of propositions. Claiming classical probability to be inadequate or inappropriate, several…
This work advances and substantiates the thesis that the resolution of this crisis lies in the domain of possibility theory, specifically in the axiomatic approach developed in Bychkovs article. Unlike numerous attempts to fix Dempster…
Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…
The computational complexity of reasoning within the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is one of the main points of criticism this formalism has to face. To overcome this difficulty various approximation algorithms have been suggested that…
The two most important algorithms in artificial intelligence are backpropagation and belief propagation. In spite of their importance, the connection between them is poorly characterized. We show that when an input to backpropagation is…
The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical probability laws. In this paper, a new quantum dynamic belief…
Dempster-Shafer theory is widely applied in uncertainty modelling and knowledge reasoning due to its ability of expressing uncertain information. A distance between two basic probability assignments(BPAs) presents a measure of performance…
Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) inferences are much more congruous than they have been perceived historically in the scientific community (cf., Reid and Cox 2015; Kass 2011; Efron 1998). Most practitioners are probably more…
The problem of combining beliefs in the Dempster-Shafer belief theory has attracted considerable attention over the last two decades. The classical Dempster's Rule has often been criticised, and many alternative rules for belief combination…
Belief functions are a powerful and popular framework for the mathematical characterisation of uncertainty, in particular in situations in which lack of data renders learning a probability distribution for the problem impractical. The first…
Estimating the difference between two binomial proportions will be investigated, where Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) methods will be considered. Three vague priors will be used, the Jeffreys prior, a divergence prior and the…
Mathematical Theory of Evidence called also Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) is known as a foundation for reasoning when knowledge is expressed at various levels of detail. Though much research effort has been committed to this theory since its…
This paper will focus on the process of 'fusing' several observations or models of uncertainty into a single resultant model. Many existing approaches to fusion use subjective quantities such as 'strengths of belief' and process these…
The Dempster--Shafer (DS) theory is a powerful tool for probabilistic reasoning based on a formal calculus for combining evidence. DS theory has been widely used in computer science and engineering applications, but has yet to reach the…
With the desire to apply the Dempster-Shafer theory to complex real world problems where the evidential strength is often imprecise and vague, several attempts have been made to generalize the theory. However, the important concept in the…
Bayesian probability theory is used as a framework to develop a formalism for the scientific method based on principles of inductive reasoning. The formalism allows for precise definitions of the key concepts in theories of physics and also…
There are at least two ways to interpret numerical degrees of belief in terms of betting: (1) you can offer to bet at the odds defined by the degrees of belief, or (2) you can judge that a strategy for taking advantage of such betting…
Dempster-Shafer theory of imprecise probabilities has proved useful to incorporate both nonspecificity and conflict uncertainties in an inference mechanism. The traditional Bayesian approach cannot differentiate between the two, and is…
In recent years, researchers in decision analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) have used Bayesian belief networks to build models of expert opinion. Using standard methods drawn from the theory of computational complexity, workers in…