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Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

The lack of transparency of Deep Neural Networks continues to be a limitation that severely undermines their reliability and usage in high-stakes applications. Promising approaches to overcome such limitations are Prototype-Based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-21 Jon Vadillo , Roberto Santana , Jose A. Lozano , Marta Kwiatkowska

The problem of detecting new signals in the presence of an unknown background is ubiquitous in scientific discoveries and is especially prominent in the physical sciences. Most solutions proposed thus far to address the problem focus on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Aritra Banerjee , Sara Algeri

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Levente Foldesi , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to interpret machine learning predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter a model's decision. However, most existing counterfactual methods have not been tested…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Leonidas Christodoulou , Chang Sun

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Johan Hallberg Szabadvary

Uncertainty in machine learning refers to the degree of confidence or lack thereof in a model's predictions. While uncertainty quantification methods exist, explanations of uncertainty, especially in high-dimensional settings, remain an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Isaac Roberts , Alexander Schulz , Sarah Schroeder , Fabian Hinder , Barbara Hammer

Whilst an abundance of techniques have recently been proposed to generate counterfactual explanations for the predictions of opaque black-box systems, markedly less attention has been paid to exploring the uncertainty of these generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Eoin Delaney , Derek Greene , Mark T. Keane

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

The Perceiver makes few architectural assumptions about the relationship among its inputs with quadratic scalability on its memory and computation time. Indeed, the Perceiver model outpaces or is competitive with ResNet-50 and ViT in terms…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-06 EuiYul Song

Using Machine Learning systems in the real world can often be problematic, with inexplicable black-box models, the assumed certainty of imperfect measurements, or providing a single classification instead of a probability distribution. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Jonathan S. Kent , David H. Menager

Supporting model interpretability for complex phenomena where annotators can legitimately disagree, such as emotion recognition, is a challenging machine learning task. In this work, we show that explicitly quantifying the uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-08 Asma Ghandeharioun , Brian Eoff , Brendan Jou , Rosalind W. Picard

Recent advances in uncertainty quantification increasingly emphasise the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning, motivating the need for more unified frameworks. However, despite much progress in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Yu Chen , Scott Ferson

In this paper we introduce a novel way of estimating prediction uncertainty in deep networks through the use of uncertainty surrogates. These surrogates are features of the penultimate layer of a deep network that are forced to match…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-19 Radhakrishna Achanta , Natasa Tagasovska

This paper tackles the challenge of detecting unreliable behavior in regression algorithms, which may arise from intrinsic variability (e.g., aleatoric uncertainty) or modeling errors (e.g., model uncertainty). First, we formally introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Andres Altieri , Marco Romanelli , Georg Pichler , Florence Alberge , Pablo Piantanida

The estimation of the amount of uncertainty featured by predictive machine learning models has acquired a great momentum in recent years. Uncertainty estimation provides the user with augmented information about the model's confidence in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-31 Ibai Laña , Ignacio , Olabarrieta , Javier Del Ser

Multimodal foundation models offer promising advancements for enhancing driving perception systems, but their high computational and financial costs pose challenges. We develop a method that leverages foundation models to refine predictions…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Yunhao Yang , Yuxin Hu , Mao Ye , Zaiwei Zhang , Zhichao Lu , Yi Xu , Ufuk Topcu , Ben Snyder

We propose an inference procedure for estimators defined by mathematical programming problems, focusing on the important special cases of linear programming (LP) and quadratic programming (QP). In these settings, the coefficients in both…

Econometrics · Economics 2017-09-27 Yu-Wei Hsieh , Xiaoxia Shi , Matthew Shum

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner