Related papers: Is Shafer General Bayes?
We verify a key component of the replica symmetry breaking hypothesis put forward in the physics literature [M\'ezard and Montanari 2009] on random factor graph models. For a broad class of these models we verify that the Gibbs measure can…
Mathematical Theory of Evidence (MTE), a foundation for reasoning under partial ignorance, is blamed to leave frequencies outside (or aside of) its framework. The seriousness of this accusation is obvious: no experiment may be run to…
Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the…
Bayes' theorem incorporates distinct types of information through the likelihood and prior. Direct observations of state variables enter the likelihood and modify posterior probabilities through consistent updating. Information in terms of…
When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the parameters given the data. Some might worry that conditional…
Bayes Factors, the Bayesian tool for hypothesis testing, are receiving increasing attention in the literature. Compared to their frequentist rivals ($p$-values or test statistics), Bayes Factors have the conceptual advantage of providing…
Bayes factors are characterized by both the powerful mathematical framework of Bayesian statistics and the useful interpretation as evidence quantification. Former requires a parameter distribution that changes by seeing the data, latter…
This paper uses decision-theoretic principles to obtain new insights into the assessment and updating of probabilities. First, a new foundation of Bayesianism is given. It does not require infinite atomless uncertainties as did Savage s…
In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…
Formulating a statistical inverse problem as one of inference in a Bayesian model has great appeal, notably for what this brings in terms of coherence, the interpretability of regularisation penalties, the integration of all uncertainties,…
Belief updating schemes in artificial intelligence may be viewed as three dimensional languages, consisting of a syntax (e.g. probabilities or certainty factors), a calculus (e.g. Bayesian or CF combination rules), and a semantics (i.e.…
In some real world information fusion situations, time critical decisions must be made with an incomplete information set. Belief function theories (e.g., Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, Transferable Belief Model) have been shown to…
Belief revision is an operation that aims at modifying old beliefs so that they become consistent with new ones. The issue of belief revision has been studied in various formalisms, in particular, in qualitative algebras (QAs) in which the…
Predicting outcomes in external domains is challenging due to hidden confounders that potentially influence both predictors and outcomes. Well-established methods frequently rely on stringent assumptions, explicit knowledge about the…
The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the…
In the context of generalized measurement theory, the Gleason-Busch theorem assures the unique form of the associated probability function. Recently, in Flatt et al. Phys. Rev. A 96, 062125 (2017), the case of subsequent measurements has…
This paper is motivated by the questions of how to give the concept of probability an adequate real-world meaning, and how to explain a certain type of phenomenon that can be found, for instance, in Ellsberg's paradox. It attempts to answer…
Dempster's rule is a fundamental tool for combining belief functions from distinct and reliable sources. However, its intersection-based semantics imposes strong structural restrictions, which limits its flexibility in handling complex…
Belief revision is an operation that aims at modifying old be-liefs so that they become consistent with new ones. The issue of belief revision has been studied in various formalisms, in particular, in qualitative algebras (QAs) in which the…
Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible mis-specification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian…