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Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying neural networks (NNs) in real-world applications. While existing calibration techniques often rely on post-hoc adjustments or coarse-grained binning methods, they remain limited in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

In many learning based control methodologies, learning the unknown dynamic model precedes the control phase, while the aim is to control the system such that it remains in some safe region of the state space. In this work, our aim is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-14 Farhad Farokhi , Alex Leong , Iman Shames , Mohammad Zamani

Recent studies in using deep learning to solve routing problems focus on construction heuristics, the solutions of which are still far from optimality. Improvement heuristics have great potential to narrow this gap by iteratively refining a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-05-12 Yaoxin Wu , Wen Song , Zhiguang Cao , Jie Zhang , Andrew Lim

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to interpret machine learning predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter a model's decision. However, most existing counterfactual methods have not been tested…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Leonidas Christodoulou , Chang Sun

Neural networks have attracted a lot of attention due to its success in applications such as natural language processing and computer vision. For large scale data, due to the tremendous number of parameters in neural networks, overfitting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-05 Xiaoxi Shen , Jinghang Lin

This paper studies a risk-sensitive decision-making problem under uncertainty. It considers a decision-making process that unfolds over a fixed number of stages, in which a decision-maker chooses among multiple alternatives, some of which…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-07 Chung-Han Hsieh , Yi-Shan Wong

Neural networks are very successful at detecting patterns in noisy data, and have become the technology of choice in many fields. However, their usefulness is hampered by their susceptibility to adversarial attacks. Recently, many methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-14 Marco Casadio , Ekaterina Komendantskaya , Matthew L. Daggitt , Wen Kokke , Guy Katz , Guy Amir , Idan Refaeli

Plasticity, the ability of a neural network to quickly change its predictions in response to new information, is essential for the adaptability and robustness of deep reinforcement learning systems. Deep neural networks are known to lose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Clare Lyle , Zeyu Zheng , Evgenii Nikishin , Bernardo Avila Pires , Razvan Pascanu , Will Dabney

With the proliferation of Deep Machine Learning into real-life applications, a particular property of this technology has been brought to attention: robustness Neural Networks notoriously present low robustness and can be highly sensitive…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-07-14 Marco Casadio , Ekaterina Komendantskaya , Verena Rieser , Matthew L. Daggitt , Daniel Kienitz , Luca Arnaboldi , Wen Kokke

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainties by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-17 Sujay Thakur , Cooper Lorsung , Yaniv Yacoby , Finale Doshi-Velez , Weiwei Pan

Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Marco Forgione , Dario Piga

A simple framework for reasoning under uncertainty and intervention is introduced. This is achieved in three steps. First, logic is restated in set-theoretic terms to obtain a framework for reasoning under certainty. Second, this framework…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-08-18 Pedro A. Ortega

To more flexibly balance between exploration and exploitation, a new meta-heuristic method based on Uncertainty Principle concepts is proposed in this paper. UP is is proved effective in multiple branches of science. In the branch of…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2020-06-18 Mojtaba Moattari , Mohammad Hassan Moradi , Emad Roshandel

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

Spectrum sensing is of critical importance in any cognitive radio system. When the primary user's signal has uncertain parameters, the likelihood ratio test, which is the theoretically optimal detector, generally has no closed-form…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-08-07 Ziyu Ye , Qihang Peng , Kelly Levick , Hui Rong , Andrew Gilman , Pamela Cosman , Larry Milstein

Robust Optimization has traditionally taken a pessimistic, or worst-case viewpoint of uncertainty which is motivated by a desire to find sets of optimal policies that maintain feasibility under a variety of operating conditions. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-22 Matthew Norton , Akiko Takeda , Alexander Mafusalov

Despite AI's impressive achievements, including recent advances in generative and large language models, there remains a significant gap in the ability of AI systems to handle uncertainty and generalize beyond their training data. AI models…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Andrew Bradley , Julian F. P. Kooij , Keivan Shariatmadar , Neil Yorke-Smith , Fabio Cuzzolin

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Bringing deep neural networks (DNNs) into safety critical applications such as automated driving, medical imaging and finance, requires a thorough treatment of the model's uncertainties. Training deep neural networks is already resource…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Julian Burghoff , Robin Chan , Hanno Gottschalk , Annika Muetze , Tobias Riedlinger , Matthias Rottmann , Marius Schubert

In this paper the application of uncertainty modeling to convolutional neural networks is evaluated. A novel method for adjusting the network's predictions based on uncertainty information is introduced. This allows the network to be either…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-12-23 Rene Grzeszick , Sebastian Sudholt , Gernot A. Fink