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We present a framework for hedging a portfolio of derivatives in the presence of market frictions such as transaction costs, market impact, liquidity constraints or risk limits using modern deep reinforcement machine learning methods. We…

Online variants of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm have recently been proposed to perform parameter inference with large data sets or data streams, in independent latent models and in hidden Markov models. Nevertheless, the…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) can be accurately approximated using co-occurrence frequencies of pairs and triples of observations by using a fast spectral method in contrast to the usual slow methods like EM or Gibbs sampling. We provide a…

When learning a hidden Markov model (HMM), sequen- tial observations can often be complemented by real-valued summary response variables generated from the path of hid- den states. Such settings arise in numerous domains, includ- ing many…

We consider penalized estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) with multivariate Normal observations. In the moderate-to-large dimensional setting, estimation for HMMs remains challenging in practice, due to several concerns arising from…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used statistical models for modeling sequential data. The parameter estimation for HMMs from time series data is an important learning problem. The predominant methods for parameter estimation are…

As deep neural networks continue to revolutionize various application domains, there is increasing interest in making these powerful models more understandable and interpretable, and narrowing down the causes of good and bad predictions. We…

Determining entropy rates of stochastic processes is a fundamental and difficult problem, with closed-form solutions known only for specific cases. This paper pushes the state-of-the-art by solving the problem for Hidden Markov Models…

In this contribution, we propose a generic online (also sometimes called adaptive or recursive) version of the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm applicable to latent variable models of independent observations. Compared to the…

We present and analyse three online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and compare them with the Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalisation error we draw…

In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem on-line plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally…

In this paper we formulate the nonnegative matrix factorisation (NMF) problem as a maximum likelihood estimation problem for hidden Markov models and propose online expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithms to estimate the NMF and the other…

In this paper we derive the consistency of the penalized likelihood method for the number state of the hidden Markov chain in autoregressive models with Markov regimen. Using a SAEM type algorithm to estimate the models parameters. We test…

This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates…

This paper studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the true data-generating process…

We aim at the construction of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of assigned complexity (number of states of the underlying Markov chain) which best approximates, in Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, a given stationary process. We establish, under…

We study the frontier between learnable and unlearnable hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations. The model parameters are known to be fully identifiable (up to…

This research paper explores the performance of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and techniques that can be used for financial asset price forecasting. The prediction and forecasting of asset prices and returns remains one of the most…

We develop a recursion for hidden Markov model of any order h, which allows us to obtain the posterior distribution of the latent state at every occasion, given the previous h states and the observed data. With respect to the well-known…

We investigate nonlinear regression for nonstationary sequential data. In most real-life applications such as business domains including finance, retail, energy and economy, timeseries data exhibits nonstationarity due to the temporally…