Related papers: Shootout-89: A Comparative Evaluation of Knowledge…
One key requirement for effective supply chain management is the quality of its inventory management. Various inventory management methods are typically employed for different types of products based on their demand patterns, product…
Extreme weather events are becoming more common, with severe storms, floods, and prolonged precipitation affecting communities worldwide. These shifts in climate patterns pose a direct threat to the insurance industry, which faces growing…
Poor air quality can have a significant impact on human health. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) air quality forecasting guidance is challenged by the increasing presence of extreme air quality events due to…
Predictions of thunderstorm-related hazards are needed in several sectors, including first responders, infrastructure management and aviation. To address this need, we present a deep learning model that can be adapted to different hazard…
A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more…
Storm surges can give rise to extreme floods in coastal areas. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute produces 120-hour regional operational storm surge forecasts along the coast of Norway based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS),…
Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…
Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical…
Wind gust prediction plays an important role in warning strategies of national meteorological services due to the high impact of its extreme values. However, forecasting wind gusts is challenging because they are influenced by small-scale…
Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the…
Machine learning (ML) offers a computationally efficient approach for generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate projections, but deterministic ML methods often smooth fine-scale structures and underestimate extremes. While…
When performing predictions that use Machine Learning (ML), we are mainly interested in performance and interpretability. This generates a natural trade-off, where complex models generally have higher skills but are harder to explain and…
A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the physical processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system. In contrast, machine learning techniques have…
Atmospheric Extreme Events (EEs) cause severe damages to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of EEs and other associated events are increasing in the current climate change and global warming risk. The accurate…
This paper examines collaborative sensemaking during severe weather events through the emerging phenomenon of "weatherfluencers" or content creators who livestream meteorological interpretation on platforms like YouTube. Drawing from…
Software systems now complement an incredibly vast number of human activities, and much effort has been deployed to make them quasi-autonomous with the build-up of increasingly performant self-adaptive capabilities, so that the burden of…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
In this paper, we predict severity of extreme weather events (tropical storms, hurricanes, etc.) using buoy data time series variables such as wind speed and air temperature. The prediction/forecasting method is based on various forecasting…
The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…
Accurate weather forecasts are essential for supporting a wide range of activities and decision-making processes, as well as mitigating the impacts of adverse weather events. While traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) remains the…