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Large-scale datasets are increasingly being used to inform decision making. While this effort aims to ground policy in real-world evidence, challenges have arisen as selection bias and other forms of distribution shifts often plague…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-07 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Mateo Dulce , Carlos Patino , Bryan Wilder

Subjective expected utility theory assumes that decision-makers possess unlimited computational resources to reason about their choices; however, virtually all decisions in everyday life are made under resource constraints - i.e.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-07 Pedro A. Ortega , Alan A. Stocker

An approach is presented treating decision theory as a probabilistic theory based on quantum techniques. Accurate definitions are given and thorough analysis is accomplished for the quantum probabilities describing the choice between…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-06 V. I. Yukalov

Human decision-making underlies all economic behavior. For the past four decades, human decision-making under uncertainty has continued to be explained by theoretical models based on prospect theory, a framework that was awarded the Nobel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-21 David D. Bourgin , Joshua C. Peterson , Daniel Reichman , Thomas L. Griffiths , Stuart J. Russell

Can stated preferences inform counterfactual analyses of actual choice? This research proposes a novel approach to researchers who have access to both stated choices in hypothetical scenarios and actual choices, matched or unmatched. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-18 Romuald Meango , Marc Henry , Ismael Mourifie

People care about decision outcomes and how decisions get made, both when making decisions and reflecting on decisions. But formalizing the full range of normative concerns that drive decisions is an open challenge. We introduce Axiomatic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Ben Abramowitz , Nicholas Mattei

As algorithmic decision-making systems become more prevalent in society, ensuring the fairness of these systems is becoming increasingly important. Whilst there has been substantial research in building fair algorithmic decision-making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Madeleine Waller , Odinaldo Rodrigues , Oana Cocarascu

A common approach to aggregate classification estimates in an ensemble of decision trees is to either use voting or to average the probabilities for each class. The latter takes uncertainty into account, but not the reliability of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-17 Florian Busch , Moritz Kulessa , Eneldo Loza Mencía , Hendrik Blockeel

Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-22 Kevin Judd

The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-08-11 Christian Tarsney

This paper investigates the prospects of using directive explanations to assist people in achieving recourse of machine learning decisions. Directive explanations list which specific actions an individual needs to take to achieve their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Ronal Singh , Paul Dourish , Piers Howe , Tim Miller , Liz Sonenberg , Eduardo Velloso , Frank Vetere

Quantitative characterizations and estimations of uncertainty are of fundamental importance in optimization and decision-making processes. Herein, we propose intuitive scores, which we call certainty and doubt, that can be used in both a…

Monotonicity and recursivity are central assumptions in intertemporal consumption problems under ambiguity. We show that monotone recursive preferences admit both a recursive and an ex-ante representation, and that the certainty equivalent…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-23 Massimo Marinacci , Giulio Principi , Lorenzo Stanca

Unobserved confounding arises when an unmeasured feature influences both the treatment and the outcome, leading to biased causal effect estimates. This issue undermines observational studies in fields like economics, medicine, ecology or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Alexander Merkov , David Rohde , Alexandre Gilotte , Benjamin Heymann

One way to make decisions under uncertainty is to select an optimal option from a possible range of options, by maximizing the expected utilities derived from a probability model. However, under severe uncertainty, identifying precise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-06 Nawapon Nakharutai , Sébastien Destercke , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

Decision support systems enhanced by Artificial Intelligence (AI) are increasingly being used in high-stakes scenarios where errors or biased outcomes can have significant consequences. In this work, we explore the conditions under which…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Marina Estévez-Almenzar , Ricardo Baeza-Yates , Carlos Castillo

An algorithm effects a causal representation of relations between features and labels in the human's perception. Such a representation might conflict with the human's prior belief. Explanations can direct the human's attention to the…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Charles Wan , Rodrigo Belo , Leid Zejnilović , Susana Lavado

Machine learning systems can help humans to make decisions by providing decision suggestions (i.e., a label for a datapoint). However, individual datapoints do not always provide enough clear evidence to make confident suggestions. Although…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Andrea Papenmeier , Daniel Hienert , Yvonne Kammerer , Christin Seifert , Dagmar Kern

Most data for evaluating and training recommender systems is subject to selection biases, either through self-selection by the users or through the actions of the recommendation system itself. In this paper, we provide a principled approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-30 Tobias Schnabel , Adith Swaminathan , Ashudeep Singh , Navin Chandak , Thorsten Joachims

This paper presents an approach for developing the explanation capabilities of rule-based expert systems managing imprecise and uncertain knowledge. The treatment of uncertainty takes place in the framework of possibility theory where the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Henri Farrency , Henri Prade