Related papers: Wave Extremes in the North East Atlantic from Ense…
Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…
Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutral wind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWF ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upper percentiles are…
Non-stationary time series modelling is applied to long tidal records from Esbjerg, Denmark, and coupled to climate change projections for sea-level and storminess, to produce projections of likely future sea-level maxima. The model has…
Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the…
A combined high-resolution atmospheric downscaling and wave hindcast based on the ERA-40 reanalysis covering the Norwegian Sea, the North Sea and the Barents Sea is presented. The period covered is from September 1957 to August 2002. The…
An Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) can provide valuable information on the analysis and short-range forecast uncertainties. The present ECMWF operational ocean analysis and reanalysis system, called ORAS5, produces an ensemble but does…
We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…
Atmospheric transient eddies and low-frequency flow contribution to the ocean surface wave climate in the North Atlantic during boreal winter is investigated (1980 - 2016). We conduct a set of numerical simulations with a state-of-the-art…
We present a new statistical method to optimally link local weather extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures. The method is illustrated using July-August daily mean temperature at 2m height (T2m) time-series over the…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
Estimating climate effects on future ocean storm severity is plagued by large uncertainties, yet for safe design and operation of offshore structures, best possible estimates of climate effects are required given available data. We explore…
A high-resolution wave climate projection for the northwestern Atlantic Ocean has been conducted to help assess possible regional impacts due to global climate change. The spectral wave model NOAA WAVEWATCH III is utilized with three…
Knowledge about statistics for water level variations along the coast due to storm surge is important for the utilization of the coastal zone. An open and freely available storm surge hindcast archive covering the coast of Norway and…
The joint extremal spatial dependence of wind speed and significant wave height in the North East Atlantic is quantified using Metop satellite scatterometer and hindcast observations for the period 2007-2018, and a multivariate spatial…
Extreme Precipitation Events (EPEs) can have devastating consequences such as floods and landslides, posing a great threat to society and the economy. Predicting such events long in advance can support the mitigation of negative impacts.…
Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems…
This paper proposes a machine learning method based on the Extra Trees (ET) algorithm for forecasting Significant Wave Heights in oceanic waters. To derive multiple features from the CDIP buoys, which make point measurements, we first…
Nowadays, weather prediction is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to produce an ensemble of forecasts. Despite of large improvements over the last few decades, they still tend to exhibit systematic bias and dispersion…
A 200-member ensemble developed at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes based on the Weather Research and Forecast atmospheric model tailored for the prediction of atmospheric rivers and associated heavy-to-extreme…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…