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Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-16 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Felix J. Herrmann

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-22 Marvin Schmitt , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

The statistical inverse problem of estimating the probability distribution of an infinite-dimensional unknown given its noisy indirect observation is studied in the Bayesian framework. In practice, one often considers only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 Sari Lasanen

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Viktor Bengs , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2008-06-26 Marco Zaffalon , Marcus Hutter

Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-08 Marco Zaffalon , Marcus Hutter

We have previously reported a Bayesian algorithm for determining the coordinates of points in three-dimensional space from uncertain constraints. This method is useful in the determination of biological molecular structure. It is limited,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Russ B. Altman , Cheng C. Chen , William B. Poland , Jaswinder Pal Singh

We propose a novel iterative algorithm for estimating a deterministic but unknown parameter vector in the presence of model uncertainties. This iterative algorithm is based on a system model where an overall noise term describes both, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-27 Oliver Lang , Michael Lunglmayr , Mario Huemer

Accurate noise modelling is important for training of deep learning reconstruction algorithms. While noise models are well known for traditional imaging techniques, the noise distribution of a novel sensor may be difficult to determine a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-11 Felix Horger , Tobias Würfl , Vincent Christlein , Andreas Maier

Computing the probability of a formula given the probabilities or weights associated with other formulas is a natural extension of logical inference to the probabilistic setting. Surprisingly, this problem has received little attention in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Vibhav Gogate , Pedro Domingos

Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models are an essential tool for analyzing count data. However, designing efficient algorithms to sample from the posterior distribution of the target parameters remains a challenging task for this class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-10 Aldo Gardini , Fedele Greco , Carlo Trivisano

Dempster-Shafer theory of imprecise probabilities has proved useful to incorporate both nonspecificity and conflict uncertainties in an inference mechanism. The traditional Bayesian approach cannot differentiate between the two, and is…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2015-03-20 Sari Haj Hussein

We generalize the well-known mixtures of Gaussians approach to density estimation and the accompanying Expectation--Maximization technique for finding the maximum likelihood parameters of the mixture to the case where each data point…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-01 Jo Bovy , David W. Hogg , Sam T. Roweis

Bayesian analysis plays a crucial role in estimating distribution of unknown parameters for given data and model. Due to the curse of dimensionality, it becomes difficult for high-dimensional problems, especially when multiple modes exist.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Zihan Liao , Binbin Li , Hua-Ping Wan

In this paper we discuss a well known computing problem -- inference for models with intractable normalizing functions. Models with intractable normalizing functions arise in a wide variety of areas, for instance network models, models for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Murali Haran , Bokgyeong Kang , Jaewoo Park

Given a universe of discourse X-a domain of possible outcomes-an experiment may consist of selecting one of its elements, subject to the operation of chance, or of observing the elements, subject to imprecision. A priori uncertainty about…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Arthur Ramer

Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems.…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-14 Andreas Svensson , Thomas B. Schön , Fredrik Lindsten

In second-order uncertain Bayesian networks, the conditional probabilities are only known within distributions, i.e., probabilities over probabilities. The delta-method has been applied to extend exact first-order inference methods to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-17 Conrad D. Hougen , Lance M. Kaplan , Magdalena Ivanovska , Federico Cerutti , Kumar Vijay Mishra , Alfred O. Hero

In this article, we introduce mixture representations for likelihood ratio ordered distributions. Essentially, the ratio of two probability densities, or mass functions, is monotone if and only if one can be expressed as a mixture of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-30 Michael Jauch , Andrés F. Barrientos , Víctor Peña , David S. Matteson

Statistical models typically capture uncertainties in our knowledge of the corresponding real-world processes, however, it is less common for this uncertainty specification to capture uncertainty surrounding the values of the inputs to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-10 Samuel E. Jackson , David C. Woods