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We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a "perpetual money machine" type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s,…
According to the World Bank, more than half of the world's population now lives in cities, creating burdens on the degraded city infrastructures and driving up the demand for new ones. Construction sites are abundant in already dense cities…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…
Disaster recovery is widely regarded as the least understood phase of the disaster cycle. In particular, the literature around lifeline infrastructure restoration modeling frequently mentions the lack of empirical quantitative data…
This paper introduces the concept of Engineering Economy as a new paradigm for understanding and managing macroeconomic policy in middle-income countries seeking to escape the middle-income trap. Drawing on Turkiye's post-2001 economic…
Strategic behaviour is one of the main explanations for cost overruns. It can theoretically be supported by agency theory, in which strategic behaviour is the result of asymmetric information between the principal and agent. This paper…
More than half of the world's population now lives in urban environments, which concentrate services and infrastructure to satisfy the material needs of a growing number of inhabitants. The interdependencies between physical infrastructure…
Reference class forecasting is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in infrastructure projects and programmes. In 2012 the Hong Kong government's Development Bureau commissioned a feasibility study on reference…
On the occasion of the last FIFA World Cup in Brazil, The Economist published a plot depicting how many goals have been scored in all World Cup competitions until present, minute by minute. The plot was followed by a naive and poorly…
Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are a salient feature of economic and financial history. Cycles found in the data are stochastic, often highly persistent, and span substantial fractions of the sample size. We refer to such cycles as "long".…
The current study presents a comprehensive review of the benefits and barriers associated with the adoption of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in infrastructure projects, focusing on the period from 2013 to 2023. The research explores…
Using a methodology similar to that used the in the worldwide research, the cost performance of Dutch large-scale transport infrastructure projects is determined. In the Netherlands, cost overruns are as common as cost underruns but because…
Governments have long standing interests in preventing market failures and enhancing innovation in strategic industries. Public policy regarding domestic technology is critical to both national security and economic prosperity. Governments…
The energy and material processing industries are traditionally characterized by very large-scale physical capital that is custom-built with long lead times and long lifetimes. However, recent technological advancement in low-cost…
Digital infrastructures are seeing convergence and connectivity at unprecedented scale. This is true for both current critical national infrastructures and emerging future systems that are highly cyber-physical in nature with complex…
Many empirical studies have shown that government quality is a key determinant of vulnerability to natural disasters. Protection against natural disasters can be a public good -- flood protection, for example -- or a natural monopoly --…
Modern societies can be understood as the intersection of four interdependent systems: (1) the natural environment of geography, climate and weather; (2) the built environment of cities, engineered systems, and physical infrastructure; (3)…
Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1) using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy…
At the turn of the 21st century, urban development has experienced a paradigm shift so that the quest for smarter cities has become a priority agenda, with the direct participation of industry, policymakers, practitioners, and the…
The cost-benefit analysis formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management - cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of…