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This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-31 Bent Flyvbjerg , Alexander Budzier

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-28 Bent Flyvbjerg , Mette Skamris Holm , Søren L. Buhl

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects. The study is based on a sample of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel and road projects worth US$90…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-04-17 Bent Flyvbjerg , Mette K. Skamris Holm , Søren L. Buhl

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems can provide a fast and reliable service to passengers at low investment costs compared to tram, metro and train systems. Therefore, they can be of great value to attract more passengers to use public…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-16 Rowan Hoogervorst , Evelien van der Hurk , Philine Schiewe , Anita Schöbel , Reena Urban

Many studies in economics deal with the non-reliability cost to assess insurance fees or investment analyses, but none takes into consideration the mechanical aspect of reliability analysis. Other studies in mechanics give some tools and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-16 P-J. Tisserand , M. Ragueneau

Because of the prominent position of urban rail in reducing urban transport-related problems, such as congestion and air pollution, insights into the costs of possible new urban rail projects is very relevant for those involved with cost…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-27 Bent Flyvbjerg , Nils Bruzelius , Bert van Wee

Railway operations require control systems to ensure safety and efficiency, and to coordinate infrastructure elements such as switches, signals and train protection. To compete with the traditional approaches to these systems, a…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Michael Kuperberg

Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-09 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Bent Flybjerg , Eric J. E. Molin , Bert van Wee

Using strategic timetables as input for railway network design has become increasingly popular among western European railway infrastructure operators. Although both railway timetabling and railway network design on their own are well…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-02 Tim Sander , Nadine Friesen , Karl Nachtigall , Nils Nießen

Research capacity is critical in understanding systemic risk and informing new regulation. Banking regulation has not kept pace with all the complexities of financial innovation. The academic literature on systemic risk is rapidly…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2013-10-25 Antoaneta Sergueiva

Urban rail transit often operates with high service frequencies to serve heavy passenger demand during rush hours. Such operations can be delayed by two types of congestion: train congestion and passenger congestion, both of which interact…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Toru Seo , Kentaro Wada , Daisuke Fukuda

The design and operation of protective systems is an essential engineering responsibility. Ensuring public safety, while essential, must be accomplished at a feasible cost and within government regulation. Hence, protective system design…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-20 Martin Wortman , Ernest Kee , Pranav Kannan

Using a methodology similar to that used the in the worldwide research, the cost performance of Dutch large-scale transport infrastructure projects is determined. In the Netherlands, cost overruns are as common as cost underruns but because…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-01-27 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Eric J. E. Molin , Bert van Wee , Bent Flyvbjerg

Resource adequacy studies typically use standard metrics such as Loss of Load Expectation and Expected Energy Unserved to quantify the risk of supply shortfalls. This paper critiques present approaches to adequacy assessment and capacity…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chris J. Dent , Nestor Sanchez , Aditi Shevni , Jim Q. Smith , Amy L. Wilson , Xuewen Yu

Designing and optimizing the structure of urban transportation networks is a challenging task. In this study, we propose a method inspired by optimal transport theory and the principle of economy of scale that uses little information in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-10-10 Daniela Leite , Caterina De Bacco

The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-03-27 Bent Flyvbjerg

The rise in urbanization throughout the United States (US) in recent years has required urban planners and transportation engineers to have greater consideration for the transportation services available to residents of a metropolitan…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-18 Armstrong Aboah , Lydia Johnson , Setul Shah

Metros (heavy rail transit systems) are integral parts of urban transportation systems. Failures in their operations can have serious impacts on urban mobility, and measuring their robustness is therefore critical. Moreover, as physical…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-27 Xiangrong Wang , Yakup Koç , Sybil Derrible , Sk Nasir Ahmad , Robert E. Kooij

Railway scheduling and timetabling are common stages in the classical hierarchical railway planning process and they perhaps represent the step with major influence on user's perception about quality of service. This aspect, in conjunction…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-01-24 David Canca , Eva Barrena , Encarnación Algaba , Alejandro Zarzo

The planning of attractive and cost efficient public transport systems is a highly complex optimization process involving many steps. Integrating robustness from a passenger's point of view makes the task even more challenging. With…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Matthias Müller-Hannemann , Ralf Rückert , Alexander Schiewe , Anita Schöbel
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