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Accurate trajectory prediction (TP) for climbing aircraft is hampered by the presence of epistemic uncertainties concerning aircraft operation, which can lead to significant misspecification between predicted and observed trajectories. This…
In this article, we consider transport networks with uncertain demands. Network dynamics are given by linear hyperbolic partial differential equations and suitable coupling conditions, while demands are incorporated as solutions to…
The difference between a model forecast and actual observations is called forecast bias. This bias is due to either incomplete model assumptions and/or poorly known parameter values and initial/boundary conditions. In this paper we discuss…
We propose a mobility-assisted on-demand routing algorithm for mobile ad hoc networks in the presence of location errors. Location awareness enables mobile nodes to predict their mobility and enhances routing performance by estimating link…
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty…
We consider the problem of deciding on sampling strategy, in particular sampling design. We propose a risk measure, whose minimizing value guides the choice. The method makes use of a superpopulation model and takes into account uncertainty…
Network diffusion models are used to study disease transmission, information spread, technology adoption, and other socio-economic processes. We show that estimates of these diffusions are highly non-robust to mismeasurement. First, even…
Increasing popularity of mobile route planning applications based on GPS technology provides opportunities for collecting traffic data in urban environments. One of the main challenges for travel time estimation and prediction in such a…
Urban metro and tram networks are regularly subject to planned disruptions, including closures, resulting from the need to maintain and renew infrastructure. In this study, we first empirically analyse the passenger demand response to…
Mitigating traffic congestion on urban roads, with paramount importance in urban development and reduction of energy consumption and air pollution, depends on our ability to foresee road usage and traffic conditions pertaining to the…
When studying the causal effect of $x$ on $y$, researchers may conduct regression and report a confidence interval for the slope coefficient $\beta_{x}$. This common confidence interval provides an assessment of uncertainty from sampling…
In this paper, we propose a model for evaluating the transmission performance of multipath transport. Previous researches focused exclusively on single pair users in simple scenarios. The distinct perspective in this paper is to build…
Mobile crowdsensing harnesses the sensing power of modern smartphones to collect and analyze data beyond the scale of what was previously possible. In a mobile crowdsensing system, it is paramount to incentivize smartphone users to provide…
In many real-world applications, a model provider provides probabilistic forecasts to downstream decision-makers who use them to make decisions under diverse payoff objectives. The provider may have access to multiple predictive models,…
By means of a novel variational approach and using dual maps techniques and general ideas of dynamical system theory we derive exact results about several models of transport flows, for which we also obtain a complete description of their…
We study consumption dependence in the context of random utility and repeated choice. We show that, in the presence of consumption dependence, the random utility model is a misspecified model of repeated rational choice. This…
Transport demand is highly dependent on supply, especially for shared transport services where availability is often limited. As observed demand cannot be higher than available supply, historical transport data typically represents a…
In the modern transportation industry, accurate prediction of travelers' next destinations brings multiple benefits to companies, such as customer satisfaction and targeted marketing. This study focuses on developing a precise model that…
Major cities worldwide experience problems with the performance of their road transportation networks, and the continuous increase in traffic demand presents a substantial challenge to the optimal operation of urban road networks and the…
"An advanced city is not a place where the poor move about in cars, rather it's where even the rich use public transportation". This is what Enrique Penalosa, the celebrated ex-mayor of Bogota once said. However, in order to achieve this…