Related papers: A Hierarchical Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo…
Many problems require to approximate an expected value by some kind of Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, e.g. molecular dynamics (MD) or simulation of stochastic reaction models (also termed kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC)). Often, we are furthermore…
This paper discusses the challenges presented by tall data problems associated with Bayesian classification (specifically binary classification) and the existing methods to handle them. Current methods include parallelizing the likelihood,…
In dynamic Monte Carlo simulations, using for example the Metropolis dynamic, it is often required to simulate for long times and to simulate large systems. We present an overview of advanced algorithms to simulate for larger times and to…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used for their versatility in sampling from complicated probability distributions. However, as the dimension of the distribution gets larger, the computational costs for a satisfactory…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are ubiquitous in Bayesian computations. However, they need to access the full data set in order to evaluate the posterior density at every step of the algorithm. This results in a great…
Estimation of spatially-varying parameters for computationally expensive forward models governed by partial differential equations is addressed. A novel multiscale Bayesian inference approach is introduced based on deep probabilistic…
We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…
We propose a new family of multilevel methods for unconstrained minimization. The resulting strategies are multilevel extensions of high-order optimization methods based on q-order Taylor models (with q >= 1) that have been recently…
We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…
While multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for the numerical approximation of partial differential equations with random coefficients enjoy great popularity, combinations with spatial adaptivity seem to be rare. We present an adaptive MLMC…
Hybrid Monte Carlo is a powerful Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for sampling from complex continuous distributions. However, a major limitation of HMC is its inability to be applied to discrete domains due to the lack of gradient signal.…
Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we…
Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…
Uncertainty estimation in deep models is essential in many real-world applications and has benefited from developments over the last several years. Recent evidence suggests that existing solutions dependent on simple Gaussian formulations…
We introduce new Gaussian proposals to improve the efficiency of the standard Hastings-Metropolis algorithm in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, used for the sampling from a target distribution in large dimension $d$. The improved…
Particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) allows for Bayesian parameter inference in nonlinear state space models by combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and particle filtering. The latter is used to estimate the intractable likelihood. In…
In traffic flow modeling, incorporating uncertainty is crucial for accurately capturing the complexities of real-world scenarios. In this work we focus on kinetic models of traffic flow, where a key step is to design effective numerical…
Kinetic equations model distributions of particles in position-velocity phase space. Often, one is interested in studying the long-time behavior of particles in high-collisional regimes in which an approximate (advection)-diffusion model…
We present novel Monte Carlo (MC) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to determine the unbiased covariance of random variables using h-statistics. The advantage of this procedure lies in the unbiased construction of the estimator's…