Related papers: Approximate Inference for Observation Driven Time …
We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods rely on asymptotic arguments, implying that parameter inference can be systematically biased even when sufficient statistics are available. We propose to construct the ABC accept/reject step…
Methods of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly used for analysis of complex models. A major challenge for ABC is over-coming the often inherent problem of high rejection rates in the accept/reject methods based on…
We present a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of mathematical models of cardiac electrophysiology with quantified uncertainty. Such models capture the dynamics of the electrical signal that coordinates the muscle cell…
Kernel methods have revolutionized the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning. Their success, however, critically depends on the choice of kernel parameters. Using Gaussian process (GP) classification as a working example, this…
We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) combined with an "improved" Markov chain Monte Carlo (IMCMC) method to estimate posterior distributions of model parameters in subgrid-scale (SGS) closures for large eddy simulations (LES) of…
In this article we consider Bayesian inference for partially observed Andersson-Madigan-Perlman (AMP) Gaussian chain graph (CG) models. Such models are of particular interest in applications such as biological networks and financial time…
This paper proposes a new approach for Bayesian and maximum likelihood parameter estimation for stationary Gaussian processes observed on a large lattice with missing values. We propose an MCMC approach for Bayesian inference, and a Monte…
In many domains, we are interested in analyzing the structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether one variable is a direct parent of the other. Bayesian model-selection attempts to find the MAP model and use its structure to…
In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC)…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are routinely used to draw samples from distributions with intractable normalization constants. However, standard MCMC algorithms do not apply to doubly-intractable distributions in which there are…
Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Computing the marginal likelihood or evidence is one of the core challenges in Bayesian analysis. While there are many established methods for estimating this quantity, they predominantly rely on using a large number of posterior samples…
We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…
Bayesian inference provides a methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and deep learning methods. Variational inference and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are used to…
We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…
Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…
We propose algorithms for addressing the bias of the posterior mean when used as an estimator of parameters. These algorithms build upon the recently proposed Bayesian infinitesimal jackknife approximation (Giordano and Broderick (2023))…
1. Challenging calibration of complex models can be approached by using prior knowledge on the parameters. However, the natural choice of Bayesian inference can be computationally heavy when relying on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Bayesian inference methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) typically require repeated computations of the likelihood function, but in some scenarios this is infeasible and alternative methods are needed. Simulation-based inference…