Related papers: Coherence of countably many bets
Stemming from de Finetti's work on finitely additive coherent probabilities, the paradigm of coherence has been applied to many uncertainty calculi in order to remove structural restrictions on the domain of the assessment. Three possible…
We give an extension of de Finetti's concept of coherence to unbounded (but real-valued) random variables that allows for gambling in the presence of infinite previsions. We present a finitely additive extension of the Daniell integral to…
Sets of desirable gambles constitute a quite general type of uncertainty model with an interesting geometrical interpretation. We give a general discussion of such models and their rationality criteria. We study exchangeability assessments…
Bruno de Finetti was one of the most convinced advocates of finitely additive probabilities. The present work describes the intellectual pro- cess that led him to support that stance and provides a detailed account both of the first paper…
In this paper we recall some results for conditional events, compound conditionals, conditional random quantities, p-consistency, and p-entailment. Then, we show the equivalence between bets on conditionals and conditional bets, by…
There are at least two ways to interpret numerical degrees of belief in terms of betting: (1) you can offer to bet at the odds defined by the degrees of belief, or (2) you can judge that a strategy for taking advantage of such betting…
In this work we first illustrate the subjective theory of de Finetti. We recall the notion of coherence for both the betting scheme and the penalty criterion, by considering the unconditional and conditional cases. We show the equivalence…
We extend de Finetti's [Ann. Inst. H. Poincar\'{e} 7 (1937) 1--68] notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than…
In many expert and everyday reasoning contexts it is very useful to reason on the basis of defeasible assumptions. For instance, if the information at hand is incomplete we often use plausible assumptions, or if the information is…
We extend de Finetti's (1937) notion of exchangeability to finite and countable sequences of variables, when a subject's beliefs about them are modelled using coherent lower previsions rather than (linear) previsions. We prove…
Although mixed extensions of finite games always admit equilibria, this is not the case for countable games, the best-known example being Wald's pick-the-larger-integer game. Several authors have provided conditions for the existence of…
Coherent sets of desirable gamble sets is used as a model for representing an agents opinions and choice preferences under uncertainty. In this paper we provide some results about the axioms required for coherence and the natural extension…
Multi-class systems having possibly both finite and infinite classes are investigated under a natural partial exchangeability assumption. It is proved that the conditional law of such a system, given the vector of the empirical measures of…
The general use of subjective probabilities to model belief has been justified using many axiomatic schemes. For example, ?consistent betting behavior' arguments are well-known. To those not already convinced of the unique fitness and…
This paper examines the possibilities of extending Cantor's two arguments on the uncountable nature of the set of real numbers to one of its proper denumerable subsets: the set of rational numbers. The paper proves that, unless certain…
Conditionals play a key role in different areas of logic and probabilistic reasoning, and they have been studied and formalized from different angles. In this paper we focus on the de Finetti's notion of conditional as a three-valued…
The multiple extension problem arises frequently in diagnostic and default inference. That is, we can often use any of a number of sets of defaults or possible hypotheses to explain observations or make Predictions. In default inference,…
Given a set of conflicting arguments, there can exist multiple plausible opinions about which arguments should be accepted, rejected, or deemed undecided. We study the problem of how multiple such judgments can be aggregated. We define the…
In 1931 de Finetti proved what is known as his Dutch Book Theorem. This result implies that the finite additivity {\it axiom} for the probability of the disjunction of two incompatible events becomes a {\it consequence} of de Finetti's…
The use of von Neumann -- Morgenstern utility is examined in the context of multiple choices between lotteries. Different conclusions are reached if the choices are simultaneous or sequential. It is demonstrated that utility cannot be…