Related papers: On confidence intervals in regression that utilize…
We present a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable from samples of the random variable. We conjecture that the confidence interval has guaranteed coverage, i.e., that it contains the…
Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…
Hypothesis testing in the linear regression model is a fundamental statistical problem. We consider linear regression in the high-dimensional regime where the number of parameters exceeds the number of samples ($p> n$). In order to make…
The estimation law of unknown parameters vector ${\theta}$ is proposed for one class of nonlinearly parametrized regression equations $y\left( t \right) = \Omega \left( t \right)\Theta \left( \theta \right)$. We restrict our attention to…
Beta regression models are employed to model continuous response variables in the unit interval, like rates, percentages, or proportions. Their applications rise in several areas, such as medicine, environment research, finance, and natural…
In typical high dimensional statistical inference problems, confidence intervals and hypothesis tests are performed for a low dimensional subset of model parameters under the assumption that the parameters of interest are unconstrained.…
We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…
Quantifying model uncertainty is critical for understanding prediction reliability, yet distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. We extend recent work from classification to regression to provide a…
[See paper for full abstract] Meta-analysis is a crucial tool for answering scientific questions. It is usually conducted on a relatively small amount of ``trusted'' data -- ideally from randomized, controlled trials -- which allow causal…
The article by Hawila & Berg (2023) that is going to be commented presents four relevant problems, apart from other less important ones that are also cited. First, the title is incorrect, since it leads readers to believe that the…
In this work, we revisit the problem of active sequential prediction-powered mean estimation, where at each round one must decide the query probability of the ground-truth label upon observing the covariates of a sample. Furthermore, if the…
In this paper, we propose a novel association measure for longitudinal studies based on the traditional definition of relative risk. In a Markovian fashion, such a proposal takes into account the information content regarding the previous…
We study the problem of heavy-tailed mean estimation in settings where the variance of the data-generating distribution does not exist. Concretely, given a sample $\mathbf{X} = \{X_i\}_{i = 1}^n$ from a distribution $\mathcal{D}$ over…
We consider a model of unreliable or crowdsourced data where there is an underlying set of $n$ binary variables, each evaluator contributes a (possibly unreliable or adversarial) estimate of the values of some subset of $r$ of the…
When the sample size is not too small, M-estimators of regression coefficients are approximately normal and unbiased. This leads to the familiar frequentist inference in terms of normality-based confidence intervals and p-values. From a…
We discuss the foundations of factor or regression models in the light of the self-consistency condition that the market portfolio (and more generally the risk factors) is (are) constituted of the assets whose returns it is (they are)…
We propose a new optimization framework for aleatoric uncertainty estimation in regression problems. Existing methods can quantify the error in the target estimation, but they tend to underestimate it. To obtain the predictive uncertainty…
We propose modified frequentist definitions for the determination of confidence intervals for the case of Poisson statistics. We require that 1-\beta^{'} \geq \sum_{n=o}^{n_{obs}+k} P(n|\lambda) \geq \alpha^{'}. We show that this definition…
In a standard Bayesian approach to the alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, a precise Dirichlet prior distribution models epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. This Dirichlet prior is then updated with observed data to obtain…
The uncertainty quantifications of theoretical results are of great importance to make meaningful comparisons of those results with experimental data and to make predictions in experimentally unknown regions. By quantifying uncertainties,…