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The prevalent view in the economics literature is that a high level of infrastructure investment is a precursor to economic growth. China is especially held up as a model to emulate. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, this paper…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-05 Atif Ansar , Bent Flyvbjerg , Alexander Budzier , Daniel Lunn

This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-31 Bent Flyvbjerg , Alexander Budzier

Cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects know no geographical limits, overruns are a global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the size of cost overruns varies with location. In the Netherlands, cost overruns appear to be smaller compared…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-09 Chantal C. Cantarelli , Bent Flyvbjerg , Søren L. Buhl

Critical infrastructures form a technological skeleton of our world by providing us with water, food, electricity, gas, transportation, communication, banking, and finance. Moreover, as urban population increases, the role of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-01-04 Konstantin Zuev , Michael Beer

Disputes over cost allocation can present a significant barrier to investment in shared infrastructure. While it may be desirable to allocate cost in a way that corresponds to expected benefits, investments in long-lived projects are made…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-25 Han Shu , Jacob Mays

The transportation system is an interplay between infrastructure, vehicles, and policy. During the past century, the rapid expansion of the road network, blended with increasing vehicle production and mobility demands, has been stressing…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2022-09-23 Weizi Li

The planning of attractive and cost efficient public transport systems is a highly complex optimization process involving many steps. Integrating robustness from a passenger's point of view makes the task even more challenging. With…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Matthias Müller-Hannemann , Ralf Rückert , Alexander Schiewe , Anita Schöbel

Managing project risk is a key part of the successful implementation of any large project and is widely recognized as a best practice for public agencies to deliver infrastructures. The conventional method of identifying and evaluating…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Abdolmajid Erfani

The cost-benefit analysis formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management - cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-04-18 Alexander Budzier , Bent Flyvbjerg

Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. First, we argue…

General Economics · Economics 2022-02-02 Bent Flyvbjerg

In this commentary we discuss the validity of scaling laws and their relevance for understanding urban systems and helping policy makers. We show how the recent controversy about the scaling of CO2 transport-related emissions with…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-10-21 Rémi Louf , Marc Barthelemy

Studies of the effect of network structure on performance have, thus far, been restricted to examining ensembles of synthetic networks generated by canonical models from the Network Science literature, which do not plausibly represent real…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-24 Steven J O'Hare , Richard D Connors , David P Watling

Traditionally power distribution networks are either not observable or only partially observable. This complicates development and implementation of new smart grid technologies, such as those related to demand response, outage detection and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-03-02 Deepjyoti Deka , Scott Backhaus , Michael Chertkov

Empirical researchers often estimate spillover effects by fitting linear or non-linear regression models to sampled network data. We show that common sampling schemes bias these estimates, potentially upwards, and derive biased-corrected…

General Economics · Economics 2025-09-23 Kieran Marray

For all line-based transit systems like bus, metro and tram, the routes of the lines and the frequencies at which they are operated are determining for the operational performance of the system. However, as transit line planning happens…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-17 Marie Schmidt , Anita Schöbel

Many studies in economics deal with the non-reliability cost to assess insurance fees or investment analyses, but none takes into consideration the mechanical aspect of reliability analysis. Other studies in mechanics give some tools and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-16 P-J. Tisserand , M. Ragueneau

Subway systems span most large cities, and railway networks most countries in the world. These networks are fundamental in the development of countries and their cities, and it is therefore crucial to understand their formation and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-07-18 Rémi Louf , Camille Roth , Marc Barthelemy

Network-based analyses of dynamical systems have become increasingly popular in climate science. Here we address network construction from a statistical perspective and highlight the often ignored fact that the calculated correlation values…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Moritz Haas , Bedartha Goswami , Ulrike von Luxburg

This paper studies a communication game between an uninformed decision maker and two perfectly informed senders with conflicting interests. Senders can misreport information at a cost that increases with the size of the misrepresentation.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-04-17 Federico Vaccari

Most cities in the US and in the world were organized around car traffic. In particular, large structures such as urban freeways or ring roads were built for reducing car traffic congestion. With the evolution of public transportation,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-03-29 Erwan Taillanter , Marc Barthelemy