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This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-31 Seulki Chung

A simple method is proposed to estimate the instantaneous correlations between state variables in a hybrid system from the empirical correlations between observable market quantities such as spot rate, stock price and implied volatility.…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-10 Baron Law

This paper expands on stochastic volatility models by proposing a data-driven method to select the macroeconomic events most likely to impact volatility. The paper identifies and quantifies the effects of macroeconomic events across…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-26 Igor Martins , Hedibert Freitas Lopes

A common assumption in financial engineering is that the market price for any derivative coincides with an objectively defined risk-neutral price - a plausible assumption only if traders collectively possess objective knowledge about the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-10-08 Kerry W. Fendick

Stochastic volatility models describe stock returns $r_t$ as driven by an unobserved process capturing the random dynamics of volatility $v_t$. The present paper quantifies how much information about volatility $v_t$ and future stock…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-04 Oliver Pfante , Nils Bertschinger

We study the dependence of volatility on the stock price in the stochastic volatility framework on the example of the Heston model. To be more specific, we consider the conditional expectation of variance (square of volatility) under fixed…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2011-07-29 Mikhail Martynov , Olga Rozanova

In this paper, we derive the price of a European call option of an asset following a normal process assuming stochastic volatility. The volatility is assumed to follow the Cox Ingersoll Ross (CIR) process. We then use the fast Fourier…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-07 Matta Uma Maheswara Reddy

Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-22 Junyao Chen , Tony Sit , Hoi Ying Wong

The introduction of transaction costs into the theory of option pricing could lead not only to the change of return for options, but also to the change of the volatility. On the base of assumption of the portfolio analysis, a new equation…

General Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Alexander Morozovsky

We find various exact solutions for a new stochastic volatility (SV) model: the transition probability density, European-style option values, and (when it exists) the martingale defect. This may represent the first example of an SV model…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-05-28 Alan L. Lewis

This paper proposes swaps on two important new measures of generalized variance, namely the maximum eigen-value and trace of the covariance matrix of the assets involved. We price these generalized variance swaps for financial markets with…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-13 Subhojit Biswas , Diganta Mukherjee

In the classical model of stock prices which is assumed to be Geometric Brownian motion, the drift and the volatility of the prices are held constant. However, in reality, the volatility does vary. In quantitative finance, the Heston model…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-21 Arunangshu Biswas , Anindya Goswami , Ludger Overbeck

We consider change point detection for the volatility in second order linear parabolic stochastic partial differential equations based on high frequency spatio-temporal data. We give a test statistic to detect changes in the volatility…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Yozo Tonaki , Yusuke Kaino , Masayuki Uchida

We empirically investigate the functional link between the variance swap rate and the spot variance. Using S\&P500 data over the period 2006-2018, we find overwhelming empirical evidence supporting the affine link analytically found by…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-09 Maria Elvira Mancino , Simone Scotti , Giacomo Toscano

This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both volatility and drift. Corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-22 Larry G. Epstein , Shaolin Ji

This paper develops a novel framework for modeling the variance swap of multi-asset portfolios by employing the generalized variance approach, which utilizes the determinant of the covariance matrix of the underlying assets. By specifying…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-24 Semere Gebresilassie , Mulue Gebreslasie , Minglian Lin

The Cartier-Perrin theorem, which was published in 1995 and is expressed in the language of nonstandard analysis, permits, for the first time perhaps, a clear-cut mathematical definition of the volatility of a financial asset. It yields as…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-02-07 Michel Fliess , Cédric Join , Frédéric Hatt

An explicit weak solution for the 3/2 stochastic volatility model is obtained and used to develop a simulation algorithm for option pricing purposes. The 3/2 model is a non-affine stochastic volatility model whose variance process is the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-12 Iro René Kouarfate , Michael A. Kouritzin , Anne MacKay

Forecasting the volatility of financial assets is essential for various financial applications. This paper addresses the challenging task of forecasting the volatility of financial assets with limited historical data, such as new issues or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Andreas Teller , Uta Pigorsch , Christian Pigorsch

Silkswap is an automated market maker model designed for efficient stablecoin trading with minimal price impact. The original purpose of Silkswap is to facilitate the trading of fiat-pegged stablecoins with the stablecoin Silk, but it can…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-16 Nicola Cantarutti , Alex Harker , Carter Woetzel
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