Related papers: Symbolic Probabilistic Inference with Evidence Pot…

Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve…

Neural networks are being extensively used for modelling data, especially in the case where no likelihood can be formulated. Although in the case of X-ray spectral fitting, the likelihood is known, we aim to investigate the neural networks…

We present Probabilistic Structure Integration (PSI), a system for learning richly controllable and flexibly promptable world models from data. PSI consists of a three-step cycle. The first step, Probabilistic prediction, involves building…

Symbolic regression automates the process of learning closed-form mathematical models from data. Standard approaches to symbolic regression, as well as newer deep learning approaches, rely on heuristic model selection criteria, heuristic…

Bayesian network is a complete model for the variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to…

Exact inference in Bayesian networks is intractable and has an exponential dependence on the size of the largest clique in the corresponding clique tree (CT), necessitating approximations. Factor based methods to bound clique sizes are more…

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

Inference is a fundamental reasoning technique in probability theory. When applied to a large joint distribution, it involves updating with evidence (conditioning) in one or more components (variables) and computing the outcome in other…

Performing exact inference on Bayesian networks is known to be #P-hard. Typically approximate inference techniques are used instead to sample from the distribution on query variables given the values $e$ of evidence variables. Classically,…

We introduce a new unsupervised anomaly detection ensemble called SPI which can harness privileged information - data available only for training examples but not for (future) test examples. Our ideas build on the Learning Using Privileged…

We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian Structural Inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar HMM (uHMM) topologies for inference of process…

The marginal likelihood, or evidence, plays a central role in Bayesian model selection, yet remains notoriously challenging to compute in likelihood-free settings. While Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) techniques such as Sequential Neural…

When using the electronic map, POI retrieval is the initial and important step, whose quality directly affects the user experience. Similarity between user query and POI information is the most critical feature in POI retrieval. An accurate…

Sequential neuronal activity underlies a wide range of processes in the brain. Neuroscientific evidence for neuronal sequences has been reported in domains as diverse as perception, motor control, speech, spatial navigation and memory.…

Discrete probability laws underpin statistical modeling, yet the catalog of interpretable distributions has expanded only gradually through centuries of case-by-case mathematical derivations. We introduce symbolic density estimation (SDE),…

We present a generalization of the local expression language used in the Symbolic Probabilistic Inference (SPI) approach to inference in belief nets [1l, [8]. The local expression language in SPI is the language in which the dependence of a…

Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian…

The Bayesian evidence, crucial ingredient for model selection, is arguably the most important quantity in Bayesian data analysis: at the same time, however, it is also one of the most difficult to compute. In this paper we present a…

Recently, Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) has been increasingly attractive thanks to its ability to find good posterior approximations of probabilistic models. It optimizes the variational objective with stochastic optimization,…

Technological advances in genotyping have given rise to hypothesis-based association studies of increasing scope. As a result, the scientific hypotheses addressed by these studies have become more complex and more difficult to address using…