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Large-language models (LLMs) and chatbot agents are known to provide wrong outputs at times, and it was recently found that this can never be fully prevented. Hence, uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role, aiming to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Michael Kirchhof , Gjergji Kasneci , Enkelejda Kasneci

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in information-seeking and decision-making tasks. Despite their broad utility, LLMs tend to generate information that conflicts with real-world facts, and their persuasive style can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Arslan Chaudhry , Sridhar Thiagarajan , Dilan Gorur

The management of uncertainty in expert systems has usually been left to ad hoc representations and rules of combinations lacking either a sound theory or clear semantics. The objective of this paper is to establish a theoretical basis for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Piero P. Bonissone , Keith S. Decker

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Yasin Abbasi Yadkori , Ilja Kuzborskij , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Gabriel Freedman , Francesca Toni

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities, yet selecting the most reliable response from multiple LLMs remains a challenge, particularly in resource-constrained settings. Existing approaches often depend on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Aakriti Agrawal , Rohith Aralikatti , Anirudh Satheesh , Souradip Chakraborty , Amrit Singh Bedi , Furong Huang

The growing integration of large language models across professional domains transforms how experts make critical decisions in healthcare, education, and law. While significant research effort focuses on getting these systems to communicate…

Interpreting uncertain data can be difficult, particularly if the data presentation is complex. We investigate the efficacy of different modalities for representing data and how to combine the strengths of each modality to facilitate the…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Chase Stokes , Chelsea Sanker , Bridget Cogley , Vidya Setlur

This note is concerned with a formal analysis of the problem of non-monotonic reasoning in intelligent systems, especially when the uncertainty is taken into account in a quantitative way. A firm connection between logic and probability is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Hung-Trung Nguyen

Multilingual language models (MLMs) store factual knowledge across languages but often struggle to provide consistent responses to semantically equivalent prompts in different languages. While previous studies point out this cross-lingual…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Mingyang Wang , Heike Adel , Lukas Lange , Yihong Liu , Ercong Nie , Jannik Strötgen , Hinrich Schütze

To interpret uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, recent work has proposed generating Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUEs). However, for a single input, such approaches could output a variety of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-06 Dan Ley , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller

This paper is an original attempt to understand the foundations of economic reasoning. It endeavors to rigorously define the relationship between subjective interpretations and objective valuations of such interpretations in the context of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-05-20 Daniel Lu

The basic aim of our study is to give a possible model for handling uncertain information. This model is worked out in the framework of DATALOG. At first the concept of fuzzy Datalog will be summarized, then its extensions for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-04-08 Agnes Achs

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks. However, these models could offer biased, hallucinated, or non-factual responses camouflaged by their fluency and realistic appearance. Uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Zhiqiu Xia , Jinxuan Xu , Yuqian Zhang , Hang Liu

Effective interlocutors account for the uncertain goals, beliefs, and emotions of others. But even the best human conversationalist cannot perfectly anticipate the trajectory of a dialogue. How well can language models represent inherent…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Anthony Sicilia , Hyunwoo Kim , Khyathi Raghavi Chandu , Malihe Alikhani , Jack Hessel

In this paper, we examine the concept of modularity, an often cited advantage of the ruled-based representation methodology. We argue that the notion of modularity consists of two distinct concepts which we call syntactic modularity and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-12 David Heckerman , Eric J. Horvitz

Modern LLMs continue to exhibit significant variance in behavior across languages, such as being able to recall factual information in some languages but not others. While typically studied as a problem to be mitigated, in this work, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Lucas Bandarkar , Alan Ansell , Trevor Cohn

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable reasoning capabilities in mathematical and scientific tasks. To enhance complex reasoning, multi-agent systems have been proposed to harness the collective intelligence of LLM agents.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Zhenyu Bi , Meng Lu , Yang Li , Swastik Roy , Weijie Guan , Morteza Ziyadi , Xuan Wang

Reasoning under uncertainty in Al hats come to mean assessing the credibility of hypotheses inferred from evidence. But techniques for assessing credibility do not tell a problem solver what to do when it is uncertain. This is the focus of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Paul Cohen

Automated reasoning about uncertain knowledge has many applications. One difficulty when developing such systems is the lack of a completely satisfactory integration of logic and probability. We address this problem directly. Expressive…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2012-09-13 Marcus Hutter , John W. Lloyd , Kee Siong Ng , William T. B. Uther