Related papers: Contextual analysis framework for bursty dynamics

Statistical physics has proven to be a very fruitful framework to describe phenomena outside the realm of traditional physics. The last years have witnessed the attempt by physicists to study collective phenomena emerging from the…

The complexity of human interactions with social and natural phenomena is mirrored in the way we describe our experiences through natural language. In order to retain and convey such a high dimensional information, the statistical…

Thousands of documents are made available to the users via the web on a daily basis. One of the most extensively studied problems in the context of such document streams is burst identification. Given a term t, a burst is generally…

Non-Poissonian bursty processes are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena, yet little is known about their effects on the large-scale spreading dynamics. In order to characterize these effects we devise an analytically solvable model…

Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity…

A stream of conscious experience is extremely contextual; it is impacted by sensory stimuli, drives and emotions, and the web of associations that link, directly or indirectly, the subject of experience to other elements of the individual's…

Inhomogeneous temporal processes, like those appearing in human communications, neuron spike trains, and seismic signals, consist of high-activity bursty intervals alternating with long low-activity periods. In recent studies such bursty…

The boundaries between physical and social networks have narrowed with the advent of the Internet and its pervasive platforms. This has given rise to a complex adaptive information ecosystem where individuals and machines compete for…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…

Temporal sequences of discrete events that describe natural and social processes are often driven by non-Poisson dynamics. In addition to a heavy-tailed interevent time distribution, which primarily captures the deviation from a Poisson…

Compartmentalization of biochemical processes underlies all biological systems, from the organelle to the tissue scale. Theoretical models to study the interplay between noisy reaction dynamics and compartmentalization are sparse, and…

Predicting undesirable events during the execution of a business process instance provides the process participants with an opportunity to intervene and keep the process aligned with its goals. Few approaches for tackling this challenge…

This paper provides a systematic yet accessible presentation of the Contextuality-by-Default theory. The consideration is confined to finite systems of categorical random variables, which allows us to focus on the basics of the theory…

Understanding the temporal properties of longitudinal data is critical for identifying trends, predicting future events, and making informed decisions in any field where temporal data is analysed, including health and epidemiology, finance,…

This article is an invitation. It is, first, an invitation to consider as a subject worthy of attention the wide range of situations where small discrete elements, either bubbles, droplets or solid particles, are embedded in turbulent…

The broad concept of emergence is instrumental in various of the most challenging open scientific questions -- yet, few quantitative theories of what constitutes emergent phenomena have been proposed. This article introduces a formal theory…

We show that qualitatively different epidemic-like processes from distinct societal domains (finance, social and commercial blockbusters, epidemiology) can be quantitatively understood using the same unifying conceptual framework taking…

In many complex systems studied in statistical physics, inter-arrival times between events such as solar flares, trades and neuron voltages follow a heavy-tailed distribution. The set of event times is fractal-like, being dense in some time…

In some systems, the behavior of the constituent units can create a `context' that modifies the direct interactions among them. This mechanism of indirect modification inspired us to develop a minimal model of context-dependent spreading.…

This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…