Related papers: Two unconditionally implied parameters and volatil…
The vast majority of works on option pricing operate on the assumption of risk neutral valuation, and consequently focus on the expected value of option returns, and do not consider risk parameters, such as variance. We show that it is…
We revisit the ``Smile Dynamics'' problem, which consists in relating the implied leverage (i.e. the correlation of the at-the-money volatility with the returns of the underlying) and the skew of the option smile. The ratio between these…
We consider parametric inference for an ergodic and stationary diffusion process, when the data are high-frequency observations of the integral of the diffusion process. Such data are obtained via certain measurement devices, or if…
A small-time Edgeworth expansion of the density of an asset price is given under a general stochastic volatility model, from which asymptotic expansions of put option prices and at-the-money implied volatilities follow. A limit theorem for…
We study in details the skew of stock option smiles, which is induced by the so-called leverage effect on the underlying -- i.e. the correlation between past returns and future square returns. This naturally explains the anomalous…
This paper expands traditional stochastic volatility models by allowing for time-varying skewness without imposing it. While dynamic asymmetry may capture the likely direction of future asset returns, it comes at the risk of leading to…
The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the…
Black-Scholes implied volatility is a quantile. The insight follows from the normalized option price being a probability on the variance scale, with the inverse Gaussian distribution providing the link. It enables analytically exact and…
The implied volatility is a crucial element of any financial toolbox, since it is used for quoting and the hedging of options as well as for model calibration. In contrast to the Black-Scholes formula its inverse, the implied volatility, is…
Generating realistic synthetic option prices requires implied volatility as an input, yet implied volatility is itself derived from observed option prices, creating a circular dependency that limits synthetic data for machine-learning and…
In this short paper, we study the simulation of a large system of stochastic processes subject to a common driving noise and fast mean-reverting stochastic volatilities. This model may be used to describe the firm values of a large pool of…
We consider risk-neutral returns and show how their tail asymptotics translate directly to asymptotics of the implied volatility smile, thereby sharpening Roger Lee's celebrated moment formula. The theory of regular variation provides the…
We propose a non-parametric extension with leverage functions to the Andersen commodity curve model. We calibrate this model to market data for WTI and NG including option skew at the standard maturities. While the model can be calibrated…
We provide a full characterisation of the large-maturity forward implied volatility smile in the Heston model. Although the leading decay is provided by a fairly classical large deviations behaviour, the algebraic expansion providing the…
Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…
In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used…
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the…
In the option valuation literature, the shortcomings of one factor stochastic volatility models have traditionally been addressed by adding jumps to the stock price process. An alternate approach in the context of option pricing and…
We consider a general local-stochastic volatility model and an investor with exponential utility. For a European-style contingent claim, whose payoff may depend on either a traded or non-traded asset, we derive an explicit approximation for…
We derive a general multivariate theory for realised characteristics of `model-free discretisation-invariant swaps', so-called because the standard no-arbitrage assumption of martingale forward prices is sufficient to derive fair-value swap…