Related papers: The Assumptions Behind Dempster's Rule

We present a semantics for adding uncertainty to conditional logics for default reasoning and belief revision. We are able to treat conditional sentences as statements of conditional probability, and express rules for revision such as "If A…

Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process. Probabilistic analysis typically requires extensive judgments regarding interdependencies among hypotheses and…

Mathematical proof aims to deliver confident conclusions, but a very similar process of deduction can be used to make uncertain estimates that are open to revision. A key ingredient in such reasoning is the use of a "default" estimate of…

This paper presents a novel explanation of the cause of quantum probabilities and the Born rule based on the intuitionistic interpretation of quantum mechanics where propositions obey constructive (intuitionistic) logic. The use of…

In this paper one studies, within Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT), the case when the sources of information provide imprecise belief functions/masses, and we generalize the DSm rules of combination (classic or hybrid rules) from scalar…

We give a proof of Cox's Theorem on the product rule and sum rule for conditional plausibility without assuming continuity or differentiablity of plausibility. Instead, we extend the notion of plausibility to apply to unknowns giving them…

Some class of sums which naturally include the sums of powers of integers is considered. A number of conjectures concerning a representation of these sums is made.

Sophisticated machine models are increasingly used for high-stakes decisions in everyday life. There is an urgent need to develop effective explanation techniques for such automated decisions. Rule-Based Explanations have been proposed for…

We give an axiomatization of confidence transfer - a known conditioning scheme - from the perspective of expectation-based inference in the sense of Gardenfors and Makinson. Then, we use the notion of belief independence to "filter out"…

Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is an efficient mathematical tool to deal with uncertain information. In that theory, basic probability assignment (BPA) is the basic element for the expression and inference of uncertainty. Decision-making…

In computational social choice, the distortion of a voting rule quantifies the degree to which the rule overcomes limited preference information to select a socially desirable outcome. This concept has been investigated extensively, but…

What is the relationship between plausibility logic and the principle of maximum entropy? When does the principle give unreasonable or wrong results? When is it appropriate to use the rule `expectation = average'? Can plausibility logic…

We propose a method for combining probabilistic outputs of classifiers to make a single consensus class prediction when no further information about the individual classifiers is available, beyond that they have been trained for the same…

Inspired by the theory of desirable gambles that is used to model uncertainty in the field of imprecise probabilities, I present a theory of desirable things. Its aim is to model a subject's beliefs about which things are desirable. What…

Superposition rules form a class of functions that describe general solutions of systems of first-order ordinary differential equations in terms of generic families of particular solutions and certain constants. In this work we extend this…

A new combinatorial-probabilistic diagnostic entropy has been introduced. It describes the pair-wise sum of probabilities of system conditions that have to be distinguished during the diagnosing process. The proposed measure describes the…

Mixed superposition rules, i.e., functions describing the general solution of a system of first-order differential equations in terms of a generic family of particular solutions of first-order systems and some constants, are studied. The…

A random set is a generalisation of a random variable, i.e. a set-valued random variable. The random set theory allows a unification of other uncertainty descriptions such as interval variable, mass belief function in Dempster-Shafer theory…

The Condorcet Jury Theorem or the Miracle of Aggregation are frequently invoked to ensure the competence of some aggregate decision-making processes. In this article we explore an estimation of the prior probability of the thesis predicted…

Causal inference from observational data often assumes "ignorability," that all confounders are observed. This assumption is standard yet untestable. However, many scientific studies involve multiple causes, different variables whose…