Related papers: Possibilistic decreasing persistence
This paper shows that the fuzzy temporal logic can model figures of thought to describe decision-making behaviors. In order to exemplify, some economic behaviors observed experimentally were modeled from problems of choice containing time,…
We give a decomposition of the posterior predictive variance using the law of total variance and conditioning on a finite dimensional discrete random variable. This random variable summarizes various features of modeling that are used to…
The problem of Information Retrieval is, given a set of documents D and a query q, providing an algorithm for retrieving all documents in D relevant to q. However, retrieval should depend and be updated whenever the user is able to provide…
A modelling language is described which is suitable for the correlation of information when the underlying functional model of the system is incomplete or uncertain and the temporal dependencies are imprecise. An efficient and incremental…
Abductive reasoning aims to find plausible explanations for an event. This style of reasoning is critical for commonsense tasks where there are often multiple plausible explanations. Existing approaches for abductive reasoning in natural…
Time series forecasting models are becoming increasingly prevalent due to their critical role in decision-making across various domains. However, most existing approaches represent the coupled temporal patterns, often neglecting the…
Defeasible statements are statements that are likely, or probable, or usually true, but may occasionally be false. Plausible reasoning makes conclusions from statements that are either facts or defeasible statements without using numbers.…
This paper studies axioms for nonmonotonic consequences from a semantics-based point of view, focusing on a class of mathematical structures for reasoning about partial information without a predefined syntax/logic. This structure is called…
While large language models are able to retain vast amounts of world knowledge seen during pretraining, such knowledge is prone to going out of date and is nontrivial to update. Furthermore, these models are often used under temporal…
In settings from fact-checking to question answering, we frequently want to know whether a collection of evidence (premises) entails a hypothesis. Existing methods primarily focus on the end-to-end discriminative version of this task, but…
A fundamental question in causal inference is whether it is possible to reliably infer manipulation effects from observational data. There are a variety of senses of asymptotic reliability in the statistical literature, among which the most…
A generalization of fluctuation theorems in stochastic processes is proposed. The new theorem is written in terms of posterior probabilities, which are introduced via the Bayes theorem. In usual fluctuation theorems, a forward path and its…
Recently, there has been considerable progress on designing algorithms with provable guarantees -- typically using linear algebraic methods -- for parameter learning in latent variable models. But designing provable algorithms for inference…
Non-parametric detrending or noise reduction methods are often employed to separate trends from noisy time series when no satisfactory models exist to fit the data. However, conventional detrending methods depend on subjective choices of…
An ordinal view of independence is studied in the framework of possibility theory. We investigate three possible definitions of dependence, of increasing strength. One of them is the counterpart to the multiplication law in probability…
In this paper, we provide more evidence for the contention that logical consequence should be understood in normative terms. Hartry Field and John MacFarlane covered the classical case. We extend their work, examining what it means for an…
A central paradigm behind process semantics based on observability and testing is that the exact moment of occurring of an internal nondeterministic choice is unobservable. It is natural, therefore, for this property to hold when the…
People often deviate from expected utility theory when making risky and intertemporal choices. While the effects of probabilistic risk and time delay have been extensively studied in isolation, their interplay and underlying theoretical…
Certain renewal theorems are extended to the case that the rate of the renewal process goes to 0 and, more generally, to the case that the drift of the random walk goes to infinity. These extensions are motivated by and applied to the…
The Collatz conjecture is explored using polynomials based on a binary numeral system. It is shown that the degree of the polynomials, on average, decreases after a finite number of steps of the Collatz operation, which provides a weak…