Related papers: Escaping from an attractor: Importance sampling an…
For a smooth vector field in a neighborhood of a critical point with all positive eigenvalues of the linearization, we consider the associated dynamics perturbed by white noise. Using Malliavin calculus tools, we obtain polynomial…
This study presents an importance sampling formulation based on adaptively relaxing parameters from the indicator function and/or the probability density function. The formulation embodies the prevalent mathematical concept of relaxing a…
Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…
This report contains a tutorial introduction to the method of importance sampling. The use of this method is illustrated for simulations of the noise-induced energy jitter of return-to-zero pulses in optical communication systems.
We provide a detailed importance sampling analysis for variance reduction in stochastic volatility models. The optimal change of measure is obtained using a variety of results from large and moderate deviations: small-time, large-time,…
We consider n-dimensional deterministic flows obtained by perturbing a gradient flow. We assume that the gradient flow admits a stable curve of stationary points, and thus if the perturbation is not too large the perturbed flow also admits…
Stochastic systems characterised by a random driving in a form of the general stable noise are considered. The particle experiences long rests due to the traps the density of which is position-dependent and obeys a power-law form attributed…
A theoretical approach for characterising the influence of asymmetry of noise distribution on the escape rate of a multi-stable system is presented. This was carried out via the estimation of an action, which is defined as an exponential…
This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…
Importance sampling approximates expectations with respect to a target measure by using samples from a proposal measure. The performance of the method over large classes of test functions depends heavily on the closeness between both…
We consider noise-driven exit from a domain of attraction in a two-dimensional bistable system lacking detailed balance. Through analog and digital stochastic simulations, we find a theoretically predicted bifurcation of the most probable…
In this paper we consider a diffusion process obtained as a small random perturbation of a dynamical system attracted to a stable equilibrium point. The drift and the diffusive perturbation are assumed to evolve slowly in time. We describe…
We analyze the finite sample regret of a decreasing step size stochastic gradient algorithm. We assume correlated noise and use a perturbed Lyapunov function as a systematic approach for the analysis. Finally we analyze the escape time of…
We consider exit problems for small white noise perturbations of a dynamical system generated by a vector field, and a domain containing a critical point with all positive eigenvalues of linearization. We prove that, in the vanishing noise…
Importance sampling is a well developed method in statistics. Given a random variable $X$, the problem of estimating its expected value $\mu$ is addressed. The standard approach is to use the sample mean as an estimator $\bar x$. In…
We study the stability of deterministic systems given sequences of large, jump-like perturbations. Our main result is to dervie a lower bound for the probability of the system to remain in the basin, given that perturbations are rare…
For non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical systems, mean exit time and escape probability are important deterministic quantities, which can be obtained from integro-differential (nonlocal) equations. We develop an efficient and convergent…
This paper investigates the exit-time problem for time-inhomogeneous diffusion processes. The focus is on the small-noise behavior of the exit time from a bounded positively invariant domain. We demonstrate that, when the drift and…
Diffusion processes with small noise conditioned to reach a target set are considered. The AMS algorithm is a Monte Carlo method that is used to sample such rare events by iteratively simulating clones of the process and selecting…
We consider the problem of estimating an expected outcome from a stochastic simulation model. Our goal is to develop a theoretical framework on importance sampling for such estimation. By investigating the variance of an importance sampling…