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Chance constraints are widely used in stochastic model predictive control (MPC) to enforce probabilistic state and input constraints in the presence of unbounded disturbances. However, they only restrict violation probabilities and do not…
The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It is common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention…
We propose approaches for testing implementations of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods as well as of general Monte Carlo methods. Based on statistical hypothesis tests, these approaches can be used in a unit testing framework to, for…
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…
We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost…
Adaptive and interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) have been recently introduced in the literature. These novel simulation algorithms are designed to increase the simulation efficiency to sample complex distributions.…
An introduction to the use of linchpin variables in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is provided. Before the widespread adoption of MCMC methods, conditional sampling using linchpin variables was essentially the only practical approach for…
We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency…
Using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from posterior distributions was the key innovation which made Bayesian data analysis practical. Notoriously, however, MCMC is hard to tune, hard to diagnose, and hard to parallelize. This…
Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) has been developed as a flexible family of scalable Bayesian sampling algorithms. However, there has been little theoretical analysis of the impact of minibatch size to the algorithm's…
The Nummellin's split chain construction allows to decompose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) trajectory into i.i.d. "excursions". RegenerativeMCMC algorithms based on this technique use a random number of samples. They have been proposed…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are frequently used to perform inference under a Bayesian modeling framework. Convergence diagnostics, such as traceplots, the Gelman-Rubin potential scale reduction factor, and effective sample…
In general, the statistical simulation approaches are referred to as the Monte Carlo methods as a whole. The broad class of the Monte Carlo methods involves the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques that attract the attention of…
We study approximations of evolving probability measures by an interacting particle system. The particle system dynamics is a combination of independent Markov chain moves and importance sampling/resampling steps. Under global regularity…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is an important and commonly used tool for the analysis of hierarchical models. Nevertheless, practitioners generally have two options for MCMC: utilize existing software that generates a black-box…
We establish finite sample bounds for the error of standard and waste-free SMC samplers. Our results cover estimates of both expectations and normalising constants of the target distributions. We consider first an arbitrary sequence of…
Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…
It is commonly admitted that non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms usually yield more accurate MCMC estimators than their reversible counterparts. In this note, we show that in addition to their variance reduction…
Approximate Bayesian computation allows for inference of complicated probabilistic models with intractable likelihoods using model simulations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation of approximate Bayesian computation is often…
Modern computational advances have enabled easy parallel implementations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, almost all work in estimating the variance of Monte Carlo averages, including the efficient batch means (BM) estimator,…