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Linearly constrained multiple time series may be encountered in many practical contexts, such as the National Accounts (e.g., GDP disaggregated by Income, Expenditure and Output), and multilevel frameworks where the variables are organized…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-05 Daniele Girolimetto , Tommaso Di Fonzo

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…

Space Physics · Physics 2020-08-04 Jordan A. Guerra , Sophie A. Murray , D. Shaun Bloomfield , Peter T. Gallagher

Time series forecasting presents significant challenges in real-world applications across various domains. Building upon the decomposition of the time series, we enhance the architecture of machine learning models for better multivariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Sanjeev Panta , Xu Yuan , Li Chen , Nian-Feng Tzeng

Retail sales forecasting presents a significant challenge for large retailers such as Walmart and Amazon, due to the vast assortment of products, geographical location heterogeneity, seasonality, and external factors including weather,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Tong Zhou

Combining forecasts from multiple numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have shown substantial benefit over the use of individual forecast products. Although combination, in a broad sense, is widely used in meteorological forecasting,…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-26 Céline Cunen , Thea Roksvåg , Claudio Heinrich-Mertsching , Alex Lenkoski

We introduce twenty four two-parameter families of advanced time series forecasting functions using a new and nonparametric approach. We also introduce the concept of powering and derive nonseasonal and seasonal models with examples in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-07-14 Nabil Kahouadji

Statistical post-processing techniques are now widely used to correct systematic biases and errors in calibration of ensemble forecasts obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. A standard approach is the ensemble…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 Sándor Baran , Sebastian Lerch

A robust model for time series forecasting is highly important in many domains, including but not limited to financial forecast, air temperature and electricity consumption. To improve forecasting performance, traditional approaches usually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-19 Long H. Nguyen , Zhenhe Pan , Opeyemi Openiyi , Hashim Abu-gellban , Mahdi Moghadasi , Fang Jin

In hierarchical forecasting, the process of forecast reconciliation transforms a set of "base" or "raw" forecasts, which do not satisfy the hierarchical aggregation constraints in the real data, into a set of "coherent" forecasts, which do…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Minh Nguyen , Farshid Vahid , Shanika L Wickramasuriya

The need to forecast solar irradiation at a specific location over short-time horizons has acquired immense importance. In this paper, we report on analyses results involving statistical and machine learning techniques to predict hourly…

Applications · Statistics 2017-08-29 Alireza Inanlougani , T. Agami Reddy , Srinivas Katiamula

Model selection has been proven an effective strategy for improving accuracy in time series forecasting applications. However, when dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from selecting the most appropriate forecasting model,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Mahdi Abolghasemi , Rob J Hyndman , Evangelos Spiliotis , Christoph Bergmeir

Time series data in the retail world are particularly rich in terms of dimensionality, and these dimensions can be aggregated in groups or hierarchies. Valuable information is nested in these complex structures, which helps to predict the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-25 Luis Roque , Cristina A. C. Fernandes , Tony Silva

Intermittent demand forecasting is a ubiquitous and challenging problem in production systems and supply chain management. In recent years, there has been a growing focus on developing forecasting approaches for intermittent demand from…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-01 Li Li , Yanfei Kang , Fotios Petropoulos , Feng Li

Time-series forecasting plays an important role in many domains. Boosted by the advances in Deep Learning algorithms, it has for instance been used to predict wind power for eolic energy production, stock market fluctuations, or motor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-23 Luis P. Silvestrin , Leonardos Pantiskas , Mark Hoogendoorn

Choosing the technique that is the best at forecasting your data, is a problem that arises in any forecasting application. Decades of research have resulted into an enormous amount of forecasting methods that stem from statistics,…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-02-05 Tine Van Calster , Filip Van den Bossche , Bart Baesens , Wilfried Lemahieu

A well known problem with EOP prediction is that a prediction strategy proved to be the best for some testing period and prediction length may not remain as such for other period of time. In this paper we consider possible strategies to…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-11-20 Zinovy Malkin

A common forecasting setting in real world applications considers a set of possibly heterogeneous time series of the same domain. Due to different properties of each time series such as length, obtaining forecasts for each individual time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-31 Lukas Neubauer , Peter Filzmoser

Forecasting can estimate the statement of events according to the historical data and it is considerably important in many disciplines. At present, time series models have been utilized to solve forecasting problems in various domains. In…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-03-10 S. Chen , X. Lan , Y. Hu , Q. Liu , Y. Deng

Data scarcity and discontinuity are common occurrences in the healthcare and epidemiological dataset and often need help in forming an educative decision and forecasting the upcoming scenario. Often, these data are stored as monthly/yearly…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2023-04-25 Mahadee Al Mobin , Md. Kamrujjaman

Hierarchical forecasting is a key problem in many practical multivariate forecasting applications - the goal is to simultaneously predict a large number of correlated time series that are arranged in a pre-specified aggregation hierarchy.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-13 Biswajit Paria , Rajat Sen , Amr Ahmed , Abhimanyu Das