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We consider the problem of approximating the product of $n$ expectations with respect to a common probability distribution $\mu$. Such products routinely arise in statistics as values of the likelihood in latent variable models. Motivated…

Computation · Statistics 2017-09-05 Anthony Lee , Simone Tiberi , Giacomo Zanella

Cross validation is a central tool in evaluating the performance of machine learning and statistical models. However, despite its ubiquitous role, its theoretical properties are still not well understood. We study the asymptotic properties…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-30 Morgane Austern , Wenda Zhou

Statistical samples, in order to be representative, have to be drawn from a population in a random and unbiased way. Nevertheless, it is common practice in the field of model-based diagnosis to make estimations from (biased) best-first…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-05 Patrick Rodler , Fatima Elichanova

A pedagogical account of some aspects of Extreme Value Statistics (EVS) is presented from the somewhat non-standard viewpoint of Large Deviation Theory. We address the following problem: given a set of $N$ i.i.d. random variables…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-09-02 Pierpaolo Vivo

Cross-validation is a statistical tool that can be used to improve large covariance matrix estimation. Although its efficiency is observed in practical applications and a convergence result towards the error of the non linear shrinkage is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Lamia Lamrani , Christian Bongiorno , Marc Potters

The estimation of an f-divergence between two probability distributions based on samples is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Most works study this problem under very weak assumptions, in which case it is provably…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-25 Paul K. Rubenstein , Olivier Bousquet , Josip Djolonga , Carlos Riquelme , Ilya Tolstikhin

Let $X$ be a random variable with unknown mean and finite variance. We present a new estimator of the mean of $X$ that is robust with respect to the possible presence of outliers in the sample, provides tight sub-Gaussian deviation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-03 Stanislav Minsker , Mohamed Ndaoud

There exist several methods developed for the canonical change point problem of detecting multiple mean shifts, which search for changes over sections of the data at multiple scales. In such methods, estimation of the noise level is often…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 Euan T. McGonigle , Haeran Cho

Covariance regression analysis is an approach to linking the covariance of responses to a set of explanatory variables $X$, where $X$ can be a vector, matrix, or tensor. Most of the literature on this topic focuses on the "Fixed-$X$"…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-08 Tao Zou , Wei Lan , Runze Li , Chih-Ling Tsai

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or health policy with observational data can be challenging due to an imbalance of and a lack of overlap between treated and control covariate distributions. In the presence of limited overlap,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-24 Martha Barnard , Jared D. Huling , Julian Wolfson

When the data do not conform to the hypothesis of a known sampling-variance, the fitting of a constant to a set of measured values is a long debated problem. Given the data, fitting would require to find what measurand value is the most…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-07-21 Giovanni Mana , Enrico Massa , Maria Predescu

We introduce a new cross-validation method based on an equicorrelated Gaussian randomization scheme. Our method is well-suited for problems where sample splitting is infeasible, either because the data violate the assumption of independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Sifan Liu , Snigdha Panigrahi , Jake A. Soloff

Regularized system identification has become a significant complement to more classical system identification. It has been numerically shown that kernel-based regularized estimators often perform better than the maximum likelihood estimator…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-18 Yue Ju , Bo Wahlberg , Håkan Hjalmarsson

For high volume data streams and large data warehouses, sampling is used for efficient approximate answers to aggregate queries over selected subsets. Mathematically, we are dealing with a set of weighted items and want to support queries…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Mario Szegedy , Mikkel Thorup

We propose a general framework for regularization in M-estimation problems under time dependent (absolutely regular-mixing) data which encompasses many of the existing estimators. We derive non-asymptotic concentration bounds for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-04 Demian Pouzo

Consider the Gaussian sequence model under the additional assumption that a fixed fraction of the means is known. We study the problem of variance estimation from a frequentist Bayesian perspective. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-19 Gianluca Finocchio , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Paulo Orenstein

Estimating the maximum mean finds a variety of applications in practice. In this paper, we study estimation of the maximum mean using an upper confidence bound (UCB) approach where the sampling budget is adaptively allocated to one of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-09 Zhang Kun , Liu Guangwu , Shi Wen

We study stochastic gradient descent for solving conditional stochastic optimization problems, in which an objective to be minimized is given by a parametric nested expectation with an outer expectation taken with respect to one random…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-04-28 Takashi Goda , Wataru Kitade

We analyze the extreme value dependence of independent, not necessarily identically distributed multivariate regularly varying random vectors. More specifically, we propose estimators of the spectral measure locally at some time point and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-05 Holger Drees