English
Related papers

Related papers: Online Learning for Time Series Prediction

200 papers

Advection-dominated dynamical systems, characterized by partial differential equations, are found in applications ranging from weather forecasting to engineering design where accuracy and robustness are crucial. There has been significant…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-06-29 Romit Maulik , Bethany Lusch , Prasanna Balaprakash

This paper investigates the problem of regret minimization in linear time-varying (LTV) dynamical systems. Due to the simultaneous presence of uncertainty and non-stationarity, designing online control algorithms for unknown LTV systems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Yuzhen Han , Ruben Solozabal , Jing Dong , Xingyu Zhou , Martin Takac , Bin Gu

This work proposes a machine-learning framework for modeling the error incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems. In particular, we extend the machine-learning error models (MLEM) framework proposed in Ref. 15 to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-22 Eric J. Parish , Kevin T. Carlberg

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Zhe Wang , Jiaxin Shi , Nicolas Heess , Arthur Gretton , Michalis K. Titsias

We study adversarial online nonparametric regression with general convex losses and propose a parameter-free learning algorithm that achieves minimax optimal rates. Our approach leverages chaining trees to compete against H{\"o}lder…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-14 Paul Liautaud , Pierre Gaillard , Olivier Wintenberger

This work focuses on the setting of dynamic regret in the context of online learning with full information. In particular, we analyze regret bounds with respect to the temporal variability of the loss functions. By assuming that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Nicolò Campolongo , Francesco Orabona

Online learning with expert advice is a fundamental problem of sequential prediction. In this problem, the algorithm has access to a set of $n$ "experts" who make predictions on each day. The goal on each day is to process these…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-04-22 Vaidehi Srinivas , David P. Woodruff , Ziyu Xu , Samson Zhou

We propose accelerated randomized coordinate descent algorithms for stochastic optimization and online learning. Our algorithms have significantly less per-iteration complexity than the known accelerated gradient algorithms. The proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-17 Akshita Bhandari , Chandramani Singh

This paper addresses the estimation of a time- varying parameter in a network. A group of agents sequentially receive noisy signals about the parameter (or moving target), which does not follow any particular dynamics. The parameter is not…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-03 Shahin Shahrampour , Alexander Rakhlin , Ali Jadbabaie

Multireference alignment (MRA) problem is to estimate an underlying signal from a large number of noisy circularly-shifted observations. The existing methods are always proposed under the hypothesis of a single Gaussian noise. However, the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-23 Cuicui Zhao , Jun Liu , Xinqi Gong

The promise of machine learning has been explored in a variety of scientific disciplines in the last few years, however, its application on first-principles based computationally expensive tools is still in nascent stage. Even with the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-07-16 Prashant Kumar , Kushal Sinha , Nandkishor Nere , Yujin Shin , Raimundo Ho , Ahmad Sheikh , Laurie Mlinar

We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 James L. Cantor , David F. Findley

We propose an algorithm based on online convex optimization for controlling discrete-time linear dynamical systems. The algorithm is data-driven, i.e., does not require a model of the system, and is able to handle a priori unknown and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-17 Marko Nonhoff , Matthias A. Müller

In this paper we introduce the class of beta seasonal autoregressive moving average ($\beta$SARMA) models for modeling and forecasting time series data that assume values in the standard unit interval. It generalizes the class of beta…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-22 Fábio M. Bayer , Renato J. Cintra , Francisco Cribari-Neto

This paper establishes minimax rates for online regression with arbitrary classes of functions and general losses. We show that below a certain threshold for the complexity of the function class, the minimax rates depend on both the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-01-28 Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan

Online learning methods, like the online gradient algorithm (OGA) and exponentially weighted aggregation (EWA), often depend on tuning parameters that are difficult to set in practice. We consider an online meta-learning scenario, and we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-15 Dimitri Meunier , Pierre Alquier

Nowadays, online learning is an appealing learning paradigm, which is of great interest in practice due to the recent emergence of large scale applications such as online advertising placement and online web ranking. Standard online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-27 Biyi Fang , Diego Klabjan

We investigate online nonlinear regression with continually running recurrent neural network networks (RNNs), i.e., RNN-based online learning. For RNN-based online learning, we introduce an efficient first-order training algorithm that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-01 N. Mert Vural , Selim F. Yilmaz , Fatih Ilhan , Suleyman S. Kozat

Considering non-stationary environments in online optimization enables decision-maker to effectively adapt to changes and improve its performance over time. In such cases, it is favorable to adopt a strategy that minimizes the negative…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-05 Siyi Wang , Zifan Wang , Xinlei Yi , Michael M. Zavlanos , Karl H. Johansson , Sandra Hirche

We establish optimal rates for online regression for arbitrary classes of regression functions in terms of the sequential entropy introduced in (Rakhlin, Sridharan, Tewari, 2010). The optimal rates are shown to exhibit a phase transition…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-12 Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan