Related papers: Belief Maintenance in Bayesian Networks

There currently exists a gap between the theories proposed by the probability and uncertainty and the needs of Artificial Intelligence research. These theories primarily address the needs of expert systems, using knowledge structures which…

Bayesian Networks (BN) provide robust probabilistic methods of reasoning under uncertainty, but despite their formal grounds are strictly based on the notion of conditional dependence, not much attention has been paid so far to their use in…

We developed the language of Modifiable Temporal Belief Networks (MTBNs) as a structural and temporal extension of Bayesian Belief Networks (BNs) to facilitate normative temporal and causal modeling under uncertainty. In this paper we…

Bayesian Belief Networks have been largely overlooked by Expert Systems practitioners on the grounds that they do not correspond to the human inference mechanism. In this paper, we introduce an explanation mechanism designed to generate…

Bayesian approaches to learn the graphical structure of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) from databases share the assumption that the database is complete, that is, no entry is reported as unknown. Attempts to relax this assumption involve…

We introduce a probabilistic robustness measure for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), defined as the probability that, given a test point, there exists a point within a bounded set such that the BNN prediction differs between the two. Such a…

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its…

Although pretrained language models (PTLMs) contain significant amounts of world knowledge, they can still produce inconsistent answers to questions when probed, even after specialized training. As a result, it can be hard to identify what…

This paper considers the problem of knowledge-based model construction in the presence of uncertainty about the association of domain entities to random variables. Multi-entity Bayesian networks (MEBNs) are defined as a representation for…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as agents that interact with users and with the world. To do so successfully, LLMs must construct representations of the world and form probabilistic beliefs about them. To provide…

Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…

Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…

Theory refinement is the task of updating a domain theory in the light of new cases, to be done automatically or with some expert assistance. The problem of theory refinement under uncertainty is reviewed here in the context of Bayesian…

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful tools for various computer vision tasks, yet they often struggle with reliable uncertainty quantification - a critical requirement for real-world applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) are…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using a…

We present Neural Bayesian Filtering (NBF), an algorithm for maintaining distributions over hidden states, called beliefs, in partially observable systems. NBF is trained to find a good latent representation of the beliefs induced by a…

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

We introduce a class of neural networks derived from probabilistic models in the form of Bayesian belief networks. By imposing additional assumptions about the nature of the probabilistic models represented in the belief networks, we derive…

Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework for distributed inference of a group of agents interacting over a social network by sequentially communicating and updating beliefs about the unknown state of the world through…