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We introduce a class of neural networks derived from probabilistic models in the form of Bayesian belief networks. By imposing additional assumptions about the nature of the probabilistic models represented in the belief networks, we derive…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 M. J. Barber , J. W. Clark , C. H. Anderson

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization, rather than using a single setting of weights. Bayesian marginalization can particularly improve the accuracy and calibration of modern deep neural networks, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Pavel Izmailov

Bayesian networks are now being used in enormous fields, for example, diagnosis of a system, data mining, clustering and so on. In spite of their wide range of applications, the statistical properties have not yet been clarified, because…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Keisuke Yamazaki , Sumio Watanbe

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Katharine Fisher , Youssef Marzouk

A Bayesian net (BN) is more than a succinct way to encode a probabilistic distribution; it also corresponds to a function used to answer queries. A BN can therefore be evaluated by the accuracy of the answers it returns. Many algorithms for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Russell Greiner , Adam J. Grove , Dale Schuurmans

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization instead of optimization, not the prior, or Bayes rule. Bayesian inference is especially compelling for deep neural networks. (1) Neural networks are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-30 Andrew Gordon Wilson

Minimum Description Length (MDL) is an important principle for induction and prediction, with strong relations to optimal Bayesian learning. This paper deals with learning non-i.i.d. processes by means of two-part MDL, where the underlying…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Jan Poland , Marcus Hutter

Standard evaluations of Bayesian deep learning methods assume that metric estimates are reliable, but we show this assumption fails under data scarcity. Method rankings are not only unreliable at small $n$, but also dataset-dependent in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Qishi Zhan , Minxuan Hu , Guansu Wang , Jiaxin Liu , Liang He

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-16 Paul Beaumont , Michael Huth

A significant theoretical advantage of search-and-score methods for learning Bayesian Networks is that they can accept informative prior beliefs for each possible network, thus complementing the data. In this paper, a method is presented…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Giorgos Borboudakis , Ioannis Tsamardinos

A significant theoretical advantage of search-and-score methods for learning Bayesian Networks is that they can accept informative prior beliefs for each possible network, thus complementing the data. In this paper, a method is presented…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-08-01 Giorgos Borboudakis , Ioannis Tsamardinos

Bayesian network classifiers (BNCs) possess a number of properties desirable for a modern classifier: They are easily interpretable, highly scalable, and offer adaptable complexity. However, traditional methods for learning BNCs have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Connor Cooper , Geoffrey I. Webb , Daniel F. Schmidt

In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for estimating architectural parameters of neural networks, namely layer size and network depth. We do this by learning concrete distributions over these parameters. Our results show that regular…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-29 Georgi Dikov , Patrick van der Smagt , Justin Bayer

As belief networks are used to model increasingly complex situations, the need to automatically construct them from large databases will become paramount. This paper concentrates on solving a part of the belief network induction problem:…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 Ron Musick

To learn (statistical) dependencies among random variables requires exponentially large sample size in the number of observed random variables if any arbitrary joint probability distribution can occur. We consider the case that sparse data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Dominik Janzing , Daniel Herrmann

Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-03 Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic , John P. Cunningham , Sarah Filippi

In recent years there has been a flurry of works on learning Bayesian networks from data. One of the hard problems in this area is how to effectively learn the structure of a belief network from incomplete data- that is, in the presence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-01 Nir Friedman

There exist two general forms of exact algorithms for updating probabilities in Bayesian Networks. The first approach involves using a structure, usually a clique tree, and performing local message based calculation to extract the belief in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-01 Mark Bloemeke , Marco Valtorta

This paper explores algorithms for processing probabilistic and deterministic information when the former is represented as a belief network and the latter as a set of boolean clauses. The motivating tasks are 1. evaluating beliefs networks…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Rina Dechter , David Ephraim Larkin

In this paper, we provide new complexity results for algorithms that learn discrete-variable Bayesian networks from data. Our results apply whenever the learning algorithm uses a scoring criterion that favors the simplest model able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 David Maxwell Chickering , Christopher Meek , David Heckerman