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Modeling returns on large portfolios is a challenging problem as the number of parameters in the covariance matrix grows as the square of the size of the portfolio. Traditional correlation models, for example, the dynamic conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Lupe Shun Hin Chan , Amanda Man Ying Chu , Mike Ka Pui So

Interacting systems are prevalent in nature. It is challenging to accurately predict the dynamics of the system if its constituent components are analyzed independently. We develop a graph-based model that unveils the systemic interactions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Giangiacomo Mercatali , Andre Freitas , Jie Chen

In causal graphical models based on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), directed paths represent causal pathways between the corresponding variables. The variable at the beginning of such a path is referred to as an ancestor of the variable at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-24 Wenyu Chen , Mathias Drton , Ali Shojaie

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are a standard tool in causal modeling, but their suitability for capturing the complexity of large-scale multimodal data is questionable. In practice, real-world multimodal datasets are often collected from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Erdun Gao , Biwei Huang , Mingming Gong , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-22 Shahine Bouabid , Jake Fawkes , Dino Sejdinovic

Recursive max-linear structural equation models with regularly varying noise variables are considered. Their causal structure is represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The problem of identifying a recursive max-linear model and its…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-07 Nadine Gissibl , Claudia Klüppelberg , Moritz Otto

For a directed acyclic graph, there are two known criteria to decide whether any specific conditional independence statement is implied for all distributions factorized according to the given graph. Both criteria are based on special types…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-03 Giovanni M. Marchetti , Nanny Wermuth

Assuming a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that represents prior knowledge of causal relationships between variables is a common starting point for cause-effect estimation. Existing literature typically invokes hypothetical domain expert…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 Kirtan Padh , Zhufeng Li , Cecilia Casolo , Niki Kilbertus

This work aims to learn the directed acyclic graph (DAG) that captures the instantaneous dependencies underlying a multivariate time series. The observed data follow a linear structural vector autoregressive model (SVARM) with both…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-09 Samuel Rey , Gonzalo Mateos

We make the case for incorporating a notion of time into causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We demonstrate that nontemporal causal DAGs are ambiguous and obstruct justification of the acyclicity assumption. Assuming that causes precede…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Alexander G. Reisach , Alberto Suárez , Sebastian Weichwald , Antoine Chambaz

Graphical models based on Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are widely used to answer causal questions across a variety of scientific and social disciplines. However, observational data alone cannot distinguish in general between DAGs…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-03 Federico Castelletti , Guido Consonni

Causal structures for observational survival data provide crucial information regarding the relationships between covariates and time-to-event. We derive motivation from the information theoretic source coding argument, and show that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-03 Ansh Kumar Sharma , Rahul Kukreja , Ranjitha Prasad , Shilpa Rao

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) of features (variables) plays a vital role in revealing the latent data generation process and providing causal insights in various applications. Although there have been many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Shaohua Fan , Shuyang Zhang , Xiao Wang , Chuan Shi

Causal models seek to unravel the cause-effect relationships among variables from observed data, as opposed to mere mappings among them, as traditional regression models do. This paper introduces a novel causal discovery algorithm designed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Saeed Mohseni-Sehdeh , Walid Saad

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) serve as crucial data representations in domains such as hardware synthesis and compiler/program optimization for computing systems. DAG generative models facilitate the creation of synthetic DAGs, which can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Mufei Li , Viraj Shitole , Eli Chien , Changhai Man , Zhaodong Wang , Srinivas Sridharan , Ying Zhang , Tushar Krishna , Pan Li

Recent work on causal abstraction, in particular graphical approaches focusing on causal structure between clusters of variables, aims to summarize a high-dimensional causal structure in terms of a low-dimensional one. Existing methods for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Francisco Madaleno , Francisco C Pereira , Alex Markham

Ordered sequences of univariate or multivariate regressions provide statistical models for analysing data from randomized, possibly sequential interventions, from cohort or multi-wave panel studies, but also from cross-sectional or…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Nanny Wermuth , Kayvan Sadeghi

We consider the problem of learning the underlying causal structure among a set of variables, which are assumed to follow a Bayesian network or, more specifically, a linear recursive structural equation model (SEM) with the associated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-05 Anamitra Chaudhuri , Anirban Bhattacharya , Yang Ni

In the process of building (structural learning) a probabilistic graphical model from a set of observed data, the directional, cyclic dependencies between the random variables of the model are often found. Existing graphical models such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Oleksii Sirotkin

Real-world networks grow over time; statistical models based on node exchangeability are not appropriate. Instead of constraining the structure of the \textit{distribution} of edges, we propose that the relevant symmetries refer to the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Gecia Bravo-Hermsdorff , Lee M. Gunderson , Kayvan Sadeghi