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With increasing competition and pace in the financial markets, robust forecasting methods are becoming more and more valuable to investors. While machine learning algorithms offer a proven way of modeling non-linearities in time series,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-09 Lukas Ryll , Sebastian Seidens

Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-22 Paul A. Wiggins , Colin H. LaMont

Prediction models are often employed in estimating parameters of optimization models. Despite the fact that in an end-to-end view, the real goal is to achieve good optimization performance, the prediction performance is measured on its own.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Nam Ho-Nguyen , Fatma Kılınç-Karzan

Change-point processes are one flexible approach to model long time series. We propose a method to uncover which model parameter truly vary when a change-point is detected. Given a set of breakpoints, we use a penalized likelihood approach…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-09 Arnaud Dufays , Aristide Houndetoungan , Alain Coën

Our work revisits the design of mechanisms via the learning-augmented framework. In this model, the algorithm is enhanced with imperfect (machine-learned) information concerning the input, usually referred to as prediction. The goal is to…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-29 George Christodoulou , Alkmini Sgouritsa , Ioannis Vlachos

Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings with selective labels: outcomes are observed only for units selected by past decision makers. This creates an identification problem under unobserved confounding -- when…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-07 Ashesh Rambachan , Amanda Coston , Edward Kennedy

In this paper the problem of retrospective change-point detection and estimation in multivariate linear models is considered. The lower bounds for the error of change-point estimation are proved in different cases (one change-point:…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-10-27 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

The last decade has seen a revolution in the theory and application of machine learning and pattern recognition. Through these advancements, variable ranking has emerged as an active and growing research area and it is now beginning to be…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Giorgio Roffo

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Wentao Gao , Xiaojing Du , Wenjun Yu , Xiongren Chen , Yifan Guo , Feiyu Yang

We argue for supplementing the process of training a prediction algorithm by setting up a scheme for detecting the moment when the distribution of the data changes and the algorithm needs to be retrained. Our proposed schemes are based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Vladimir Vovk , Ivan Petej , Ilia Nouretdinov , Ernst Ahlberg , Lars Carlsson , Alex Gammerman

The selection of the most appropriate algorithm to solve a given problem instance, known as algorithm selection, is driven by the potential to capitalize on the complementary performance of different algorithms across sets of problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Gjorgjina Cenikj , Ana Nikolikj , Gašper Petelin , Niki van Stein , Carola Doerr , Tome Eftimov

Recent papers have introduced a novel approach to explain why a Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) model for outcome-oriented predictions provides wrong predictions. Moreover, they have shown how to exploit the explanations, obtained using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Williams Rizzi , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Fabrizio Maria Maggi

In this paper we review algorithms for checking diagnosability of discrete-event systems and timed automata. We point out that the diagnosability problems in both cases reduce to the emptiness problem for (timed) B\"uchi automata. Moreover,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Franck Cassez

Checkpoint selection for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) presents significant challenges when performance differentials are marginal and evaluation signals are prone to noise. Existing methodologies rely heavily on static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Qinwu Xu , Zhuoheng Li , Jessie Salas

De-Rating or Vulnerability Factors are a major feature of failure analysis efforts mandated by today's Functional Safety requirements. Determining the Functional De-Rating of sequential logic cells typically requires computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Thomas Lange , Aneesh Balakrishnan , Maximilien Glorieux , Dan Alexandrescu , Luca Sterpone

We consider distributed iterative algorithms for the averaging problem over time-varying topologies. Our focus is on the convergence time of such algorithms when complete (unquantized) information is available, and on the degradation of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2009-01-14 Angelia Nedić , Alex Olshevsky , Asuman Ozdaglar , John Tsitsiklis

We study online algorithms with predictions using distributional advice, a type of prediction that arises when leveraging expert knowledge or historical data. To demonstrate the usefulness and versatility of this framework, we focus on the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Clément L. Canonne , Kenny Chen , Julián Mestre

Link prediction (LP) is an important problem in network science and machine learning research. The state-of-the-art LP methods are usually evaluated in a uniform setup, ignoring several factors associated with the data and application…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-07-21 Bhargavi Kalyani , A Rama Prasad Mathi , Niladri Sett

Efficient methods to evaluate new algorithms are critical for improving interactive bandit and reinforcement learning systems such as recommendation systems. A/B tests are reliable, but are time- and money-consuming, and entail a risk of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Yusuke Narita , Shota Yasui , Kohei Yata

Change point detection becomes more and more important as datasets increase in size, where unsupervised detection algorithms can help users process data. To detect change points, a number of unsupervised algorithms have been developed which…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Rebecca Gedda , Larisa Beilina , Ruomu Tan