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Spirtes, Glymour and Scheines formulated a Conjecture that a direct dependence test and a head-to-head meeting test would suffice to construe directed acyclic graph decompositions of a joint probability distribution (Bayesian network) for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-17 Mieczysław A. Kłopotek

The design of scientific experiments deserves its own variation of formal verification to catch cases where scientists made important mistakes, such as forgetting to take confounding variables into account. One of the most fundamental…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Anna Zhang , Qinglan Luo , London Bielicke , Eunice Jun , Adam Chlipala

Causality plays an important role in understanding intelligent behavior, and there is a wealth of literature on mathematical models for causality, most of which is focused on causal graphs. Causal graphs are a powerful tool for a wide range…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Scott Garrabrant , Matthias Georg Mayer , Magdalena Wache , Leon Lang , Sam Eisenstat , Holger Dell

We develop the theory linking 'E-separation' in directed mixed graphs (DMGs) with conditional independence relations among coordinate processes in stochastic differential equations (SDEs), where causal relationships are determined by "which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Georg Manten , Cecilia Casolo , Søren Wengel Mogensen , Niki Kilbertus

Conditional Independence (CI) graphs are a type of probabilistic graphical models that are primarily used to gain insights about feature relationships. Each edge represents the partial correlation between the connected features which gives…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-30 Harsh Shrivastava , Urszula Chajewska

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Peter L. Spirtes , Christopher Meek , Thomas S. Richardson

Testing conditional independence has many applications, such as in Bayesian network learning and causal discovery. Different test methods have been proposed. However, existing methods generally can not work when only discretized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-19 Boyang Sun , Yu Yao , Guang-Yuan Hao , Yumou Qiu , Kun Zhang

We develope the framework of transitional conditional independence. For this we introduce transition probability spaces and transitional random variables. These constructions will generalize, strengthen and unify previous notions of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-30 Patrick Forré

Conditional independence (CI) tests are widely used in statistical data analysis, e.g., they are the building block of many algorithms for causal graph discovery. The goal of a CI test is to accept or reject the null hypothesis that $X…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Iden Kalemaj , Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan , Aaditya Ramdas

Graphical causal models are an important tool for knowledge discovery because they can represent both the causal relations between variables and the multivariate probability distributions over the data. Once learned, causal graphs can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-04-11 Andrew J Sedgewick , Joseph D. Ramsey , Peter Spirtes , Clark Glymour , Panayiotis V. Benos

This paper discusses causal independence models and a generalization of these models called causal interaction models. Causal interaction models are models that have independent mechanisms where a mechanism can have several causes. In…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 Christopher Meek , David Heckerman

The graphical structure of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) encodes the conditional independence (CI) relations that hold in the modeled distribution. Graph algorithms, such as d-separation, use this structure to infer additional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Batya Kenig

Difference-in-Differences (DiD) is a widely used research design that often relies on a conditional parallel trends (CPT) assumption. In contrast to settings with unconfoundedness, where causal graphs provide powerful frameworks for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-15 Michael C. Knaus , Henri Pfleiderer

Temporally evolving systems are typically modeled by dynamic equations. A key challenge in accurate modeling is understanding the causal relationships between subsystems, as well as identifying the presence and influence of unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-28 András Telcs , Marcell T. Kurbucz , Antal Jakovác

Decomposable dependency models possess a number of interesting and useful properties. This paper presents new characterizations of decomposable models in terms of independence relationships, which are obtained by adding a single axiom to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-11-17 L. M. deCampos

Structural independence is the (conditional) independence that arises from the structure rather than the precise numerical values of a distribution. We develop this concept and relate it to $d$-separation and structural causal models.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-24 Matthias Georg Mayer

Independence testing plays a central role in statistical and causal inference from observational data. Standard independence tests assume that the data samples are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) but that assumption is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-04 Ragib Ahsan , Zahra Fatemi , David Arbour , Elena Zheleva

We consider situations where data have been collected such that the sampling depends on the outcome of interest and possibly further covariates, as for instance in case-control studies. Graphical models represent assumptions about the…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-06 Vanessa Didelez , Svend Kreiner , Niels Keiding

Disaggregated evaluation across subgroups is critical for assessing the fairness of machine learning models, but its uncritical use can mislead practitioners. We show that equal performance across subgroups is an unreliable measure of…

Bayesian networks provide a powerful tool for reasoning about probabilistic causation, used in many areas of science. They are, however, intrinsically classical. In particular, Bayesian networks naturally yield the Bell inequalities.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-12-03 Joe Henson , Raymond Lal , Matthew F. Pusey