Related papers: Toward a Market Model for Bayesian Inference
We propose a new methodology to compute equilibria for general equilibrium problems on exchange economies with real financial markets, home-production, and retention. We demonstrate that equilibrium prices can be determined by solving a…
We investigate a class of binary choice models with social interactions. We propose a unifying perspective that integrates economic models using a utility function and psychological models using an impact function. A general approach for…
As the amount of economic and other data generated worldwide increases vastly, a challenge for future generations of econometricians will be to master efficient algorithms for inference in empirical models with large information sets. This…
We introduce a prototype model in an attempt to capture some aspects of market dynamics simulating a trading mechanism. The model description starts with a discrete-space, continuous-time Markov process describing arrival and movement of…
Computing market equilibria is an important practical problem for market design, for example in fair division of items. However, computing equilibria requires large amounts of information (typically the valuation of every buyer for every…
Prediction markets show considerable promise for developing flexible mechanisms for machine learning. Here, machine learning markets for multivariate systems are defined, and a utility-based framework is established for their analysis. This…
A public decision-making problem consists of a set of issues, each with multiple possible alternatives, and a set of competing agents, each with a preferred alternative for each issue. We study adaptations of market economies to this…
We introduce a new class of combinatorial markets in which agents have covering constraints over resources required and are interested in delay minimization. Our market model is applicable to several settings including scheduling, cloud…
A market-maker-based prediction market lets forecasters aggregate information by editing a consensus probability distribution either directly or by trading securities that pay off contingent on an event of interest. Combinatorial prediction…
We propose a decentralized market model in which agents can negotiate bilateral contracts. This builds on a similar, but centralized, model of trading networks introduced by Hatfield et al. in 2013. Prior work has established that…
In recent years, there has been an increased need for the use of active systems - systems required to act automatically based on events, or changes in the environment. Such systems span many areas, from active databases to applications that…
This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…
When agents devise plans for execution in the real world, they face two important forms of uncertainty: they can never have complete knowledge about the state of the world, and they do not have complete control, as the effects of their…
In this paper, we describe a general method for constructing the posterior distribution of an option price. Our framework takes as inputs the prior distributions of the parameters of the stochastic process followed by the underlying, as…
The existence of a (partial) market equilibrium price is proved in a complete, continuous time finite-agent market setting. The economic agents act as price takers in a fully competitive setting and maximize exponential utility from…
We consider the problem of belief aggregation: given a group of individual agents with probabilistic beliefs over a set of uncertain events, formulate a sensible consensus or aggregate probability distribution over these events. Researchers…
We outline how to create a mechanism that provides an optimal way to elicit, from an arbitrary group of experts, the probability of the truth of an arbitrary logical proposition together with collective information that has an explicit form…
Modern market management systems continue to evolve due to the intentions to improve system security and reliability. This evolvement has been leading to a transition of market auction models from a deterministic structure with…
Although both data availability and the demand for accurate forecasts are increasing, collaboration between stakeholders is often constrained by data ownership and competitive interests. In contrast to recent proposals within cooperative…
We introduce a simple framework in which market participants update their prior about an efficient price with a model-based learning process. We show that exponential intensities for the arrival of aggressive orders arise naturally in this…