Related papers: Why Is Diagnosis Using Belief Networks Insensitive…

Traditionally, fault- or event-tree analyses or FMEAs have been used to estimate the probability of a safety-critical device creating a dangerous condition. However, these analysis techniques are less effective for systems primarily reliant…

Predicting the presence of major depressive disorder (MDD) using behavioural and cognitive signals is a highly non-trivial task. The heterogeneous clinical profile of MDD means that any given speech, facial expression and/or observed…

The paper studies average consensus with random topologies (intermittent links) \emph{and} noisy channels. Consensus with noise in the network links leads to the bias-variance dilemma--running consensus for long reduces the bias of the…

Modern convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are known to be overconfident in terms of their calibration on unseen input data. That is to say, they are more confident than they are accurate. This is undesirable if the probabilities predicted…

Bayesian inference has theoretical attractions as a principled framework for reasoning about beliefs. However, the motivations of Bayesian inference which claim it to be the only 'rational' kind of reasoning do not apply in practice. They…

Recently we have presented the analytical relationship between choice probabilities, noise correlations and read-out weights in the classical feedforward decision-making framework (Haefner et al. 2013). The derivation assumed that…

We consider the problem of diagnosing faults in a system represented by a Bayesian network, where diagnosis corresponds to recovering the most likely state of unobserved nodes given the outcomes of tests (observed nodes). Finding an optimal…

Network diffusion models are used to study disease transmission, information spread, technology adoption, and other socio-economic processes. We show that estimates of these diffusions are highly non-robust to mismeasurement. First, even…

As belief networks are used to model increasingly complex situations, the need to automatically construct them from large databases will become paramount. This paper concentrates on solving a part of the belief network induction problem:…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer a natural probabilistic formulation for inference in deep learning models. Despite their popularity, their optimality has received limited attention through the lens of statistical decision theory. In…

The loss of a few neurons in a brain rarely results in any visible loss of function. However, the insight into what "few" means in this context is unclear. How many random neuron failures will it take to lead to a visible loss of function?…

Consider a Bayesian binary decision-making problem in star networks, where local agents make selfish decisions independently, and a fusion agent makes a final decision based on aggregated decisions and its own private signal. In particular,…

Clinical dataset labels are rarely certain as annotators disagree and confidence is not uniform across cases. Typical aggregation procedures, such as majority voting, obscure this variability. In simple experiments on medical imaging…

Conformal Prediction (CP) quantifies network uncertainty by building a small prediction set with a pre-defined probability that the correct class is within this set. In this study we tackle the problem of CP calibration based on a…

We introduce a probabilistic robustness measure for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), defined as the probability that, given a test point, there exists a point within a bounded set such that the BNN prediction differs between the two. Such a…

The radio astronomy community is rapidly adopting deep learning techniques to deal with the huge data volumes expected from the next generation of radio observatories. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a principled way to model…

The performance of Bayesian detection of Gaussian signals using noisy observations is investigated via the error exponent for the average error probability. Under unknown signal correlation structure or limited processing capability it is…

Errors in measurements are key to weighting the value of data, but are often neglected in Machine Learning (ML). We show how Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are able to learn about the context and patterns of signal and noise, leading…

Causal inference, especially in observational studies, relies on untestable assumptions about the true data-generating process. Sensitivity analysis helps us determine how robust our conclusions are when we alter these underlying…

Deep Belief Networks (DBN) have been successfully applied on popular machine learning tasks. Specifically, when applied on hand-written digit recognition, DBNs have achieved approximate accuracy rates of 98.8%. In an effort to optimize the…