Related papers: Tail Sensitivity Analysis in Bayesian Networks

In previous work Majda and McLaughlin computed explicit expressions for the $2N$th moments of a passive scalar advected by a linear shear flow in the form of an integral over ${\bf R}^N$. In this paper we first compute the asymptotics of…

We propose a semiparametric method for fitting the tail of a heavy-tailed population given a relatively small sample from that population and a larger sample from a related background population. We model the tail of the small sample as an…

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities, e.g., for applications…

Testing the validity of probabilistic models containing unmeasured (hidden) variables is shown to be a hard task. We show that the task of testing whether models are structurally incompatible with the data at hand, requires an exponential…

We consider the estimation of small probabilities or other risk quantities associated with rare but catastrophic events. In the model-based literature, much of the focus has been devoted to efficient Monte Carlo computation or analytical…

We introduce a new method for learning Bayesian neural networks, treating them as a stack of multivariate Bayesian linear regression models. The main idea is to infer the layerwise posterior exactly if we know the target outputs of each…

A major issue of extreme value analysis is the determination of the shape parameter $\xi$ common to Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which drives the tail behavior, and is of major impact on the…

Sensitivity methods for the analysis of the outputs of discrete Bayesian networks have been extensively studied and implemented in different software packages. These methods usually focus on the study of sensitivity functions and on the…

Modeling and predicting extreme movements in GDP is notoriously difficult and the selection of appropriate covariates and/or possible forms of nonlinearities are key in obtaining precise forecasts. In this paper, our focus is on using large…

This paper considers Bayesian multiple testing under sparsity for polynomial-tailed distributions satisfying a monotone likelihood ratio property. Included in this class of distributions are the Student's t, the Pareto, and many other…

A notoriously difficult challenge in extreme value theory is the choice of the number $k\ll n$, where $n$ is the total sample size, of extreme data points to consider for inference of tail quantities. Existing theoretical guarantees for…

We obtain first decay rates of probabilities of tails of multivariate polynomials built on independent random variables with heavy tails. Then we derive stable limit theorems for nonconventional sums of the form $\sum_{Nt\geq n\geq…

We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…

Tail Gini functional is a measure of tail risk variability for systemic risks, and has many applications in banking, finance and insurance. Meanwhile, there is growing attention on aymptotic independent pairs in quantitative risk…

Nowadays in density estimation, posterior rates of convergence for location and location-scale mixtures of Gaussians are only known under light-tail assumptions; with better rates achieved by location mixtures. It is conjectured, but not…

The so-called partition function is a sample moment statistic based on blocks of data and it is often used in the context of multifractal processes. It will be shown that its behaviour is strongly influenced by the tail of the distribution…

Causal questions are omnipresent in many scientific problems. While much progress has been made in the analysis of causal relationships between random variables, these methods are not well suited if the causal mechanisms only manifest…

We propose a new 2-stage procedure that relies on the elastic net penalty to estimate a network based on partial correlations when data are heavy-tailed. The new estimator allows to consider the lasso penalty as a special case. Using Monte…

Estimating extreme quantiles is an important task in many applications, including financial risk management and climatology. More important than estimating the quantile itself is to insure zero coverage error, which implies the quantile…

Graph models provide efficient tools to capture the underlying structure of data defined over networks. Many real-world network topologies are subject to change over time. Learning to model the dynamic interactions between entities in such…