Related papers: Conditional Autoregressive Hilbertian processes
We propose in this work an original estimator of the conditional intensity of a marker-dependent counting process, that is, a counting process with covariates. We use model selection methods and provide a non asymptotic bound for the risk…
Time series of counts are frequently analyzed using generalized integer-valued autoregressive models with conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH). These models employ response functions to map a vector of past observations and past…
This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self-exciting flexible residual point process. High-frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy-tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge…
We consider the problem of choosing the optimal (in the sense of mean-squared prediction error) multistep predictor for an autoregressive (AR) process of finite but unknown order. If a working AR model (which is possibly misspecified) is…
High-frequency financial data can be collected as a sequence of curves over time; for example, as intra-day price, currently one of the topics of greatest interest in finance. The Functional Data Analysis framework provides a suitable tool…
We extend the notion of cointegration for time series taking values in a potentially infinite dimensional Banach space. Examples of such time series include stochastic processes in C[0,1] equipped with the supremum distance and those in a…
Conditional auto-regressive (CAR) distributions are widely used to induce spatial dependence in the geographic analysis of areal data. These distributions establish multivariate dependence networks by defining conditional relationships…
Conditional gradients constitute a class of projection-free first-order algorithms for smooth convex optimization. As such, they are frequently used in solving smooth convex optimization problems over polytopes, for which the computational…
In this paper, we introduce an algebraic method to construct stable and consistent univariate autoregressive (AR) models of low order for filtering and predicting nonlinear turbulent signals with memory depth. By stable, we refer to the…
We clarify relationships between conditional (CAR) and simultaneous (SAR) autoregressive models. We review the literature on this topic and find that it is mostly incomplete. Our main result is that a SAR model can be written as a unique…
Point processes are stochastic models generating interacting points or events in time, space, etc. Among characteristics of these models, first-order intensity and conditional intensity functions are often considered. We focus on…
We derive a closed-form expression for the finite predictor coefficients of multivariate ARMA (autoregressive moving-average) processes. The expression is given in terms of several explicit matrices that are of fixed sizes independent of…
A Poisson autoregressive (PAR) model accounting for discreteness and autocorrelation of count time series data is typically estimated in the state-space modelling framework through extended Kalman filter. However, because of the complex…
We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple…
The conditional autoregressive (CAR) model, simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model, and its variants have become the predominant strategies for modeling regional or areal-referenced spatial data. The overwhelming wide-use of the CAR/SAR…
Time series prediction with missing values is an important problem of time series analysis since complete data is usually hard to obtain in many real-world applications. To model the generation of time series, autoregressive (AR) model is a…
One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…
Linear ARCH (LARCH) processes were introduced by Robinson [J. Econometrics 47 (1991) 67--84] to model long-range dependence in volatility and leverage. Basic theoretical properties of LARCH processes have been investigated in the recent…
Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…
We use the abstract method of (local) martingale problems in order to give criteria for convergence of stochastic processes. Extending previous notions, the formulation we use is neither restricted to Markov processes (or semimartingales),…