Related papers: Conditional Autoregressive Hilbertian processes
This paper proposes a novel conditional heteroscedastic time series model by applying the framework of quantile regression processes to the ARCH(\infty) form of the GARCH model. This model can provide varying structures for conditional…
Probabilistic forecasting of time series is an important matter in many applications and research fields. In order to draw conclusions from a probabilistic forecast, we must ensure that the model class used to approximate the true…
In this paper, we consider subgeometric (specifically, polynomial) ergodicity of univariate nonlinear autoregressions with autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH). The notion of subgeometric ergodicity was introduced in the…
A recursive estimator of the conditional geometric median in Hilbert spaces is studied. It is based on a stochastic gradient algorithm whose aim is to minimize a weighted L1 criterion and is consequently well adapted for robust online…
Designing a universal policy architecture that performs well across diverse robots and task configurations remains a key challenge. In this work, we address this by representing robot actions as sequential data and generating actions…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…
Pre-conditioning is a well-known concept that can significantly improve the convergence of optimization algorithms. For noise-free problems, where good pre-conditioners are not known a priori, iterative linear algebra methods offer one way…
Stationary processes have been extensively studied in the literature. Their applications include modeling and forecasting numerous real life phenomena such as natural disasters, sales and market movements. When stationary processes are…
In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…
We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…
The higher dimensional autoregressive models would describe some of the econometric processes relatively generically if they incorporate the heterogeneity in dependence on times. This paper analyzes the stationarity of an autoregressive…
The paper develops a general flexible framework for Network Autoregressive Processes (NAR), wherein the response of each node linearly depends on its past values, a prespecified linear combination of neighboring nodes and a set of…
The linear conditional expectation (LCE) provides a best linear (or rather, affine) estimate of the conditional expectation and hence plays an important r\^ole in approximate Bayesian inference, especially the Bayes linear approach. This…
This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…
We study randomized variants of two classical algorithms: coordinate descent for systems of linear equations and iterated projections for systems of linear inequalities. Expanding on a recent randomized iterated projection algorithm of…
We introduce and explore a new class of stationary time series models for variance matrices based on a constructive definition exploiting inverse Wishart distribution theory. The main class of models explored is a novel class of stationary,…
In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose…
We demonstrate the use of conditional autoregressive generative models (van den Oord et al., 2016a) over a discrete latent space (van den Oord et al., 2017b) for forward planning with MCTS. In order to test this method, we introduce a new…
When observations are curves over some natural time interval, the field of functional data analysis comes into play. Functional linear processes account for temporal dependence in the data. The prediction problem for functional linear…
We introduce a class of Gaussian processes with stationary increments which exhibit long-range dependence. The class includes fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H>1/2 as a typical example. We establish infinite and finite past…