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We introduce inference methods for score decompositions, which partition scoring functions for predictive assessment into three interpretable components: miscalibration, discrimination, and uncertainty. Our estimation and inference relies…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-05 Timo Dimitriadis , Marius Puke

Probabilistic programming is a growing area that strives to make statistical analysis more accessible, by separating probabilistic modelling from probabilistic inference. In practice this decoupling is difficult. No single inference…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2022-04-15 Maria I. Gorinova

In this paper, we propose standard statistical tools as a solution to commonly highlighted problems in the explainability literature. Indeed, leveraging statistical estimators allows for a proper definition of explanations, enabling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-01 Valentina Ghidini

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-03 Cynthia Dwork , Vitaly Feldman , Moritz Hardt , Toniann Pitassi , Omer Reingold , Aaron Roth

As the frontiers of applied statistics progress through increasingly complex experiments we must exploit increasingly sophisticated inferential models to analyze the observations we make. In order to avoid misleading or outright erroneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-23 Michael Betancourt

The increased availability of massive data sets provides a unique opportunity to discover subtle patterns in their distributions, but also imposes overwhelming computational challenges. To fully utilize the information contained in big…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-12 Stanislav Volgushev , Shih-Kang Chao , Guang Cheng

Recent critiques of Physics Education Research (PER) studies have revoiced the critical issues when drawing causal inferences from observational data where no intervention is present. In response to a call for a "causal reasoning primer",…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Vidushi Adlakha , Eric Kuo

The rapid emergence of massive datasets in various fields poses a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods. Meanwhile, it provides opportunities for researchers to develop novel algorithms. Inspired by the idea of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-04-14 Yuan Gao , Weidong Liu , Hansheng Wang , Xiaozhou Wang , Yibo Yan , Riquan Zhang

Statistical pragmatism embraces all efficient methods in statistical inference. Augmentation of the collected data is used herein to obtain representative population information from a large class of non-representative population's units.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-04 Yannis G. Yatracos

This chapter demystifies P-values, hypothesis tests and significance tests, and introduces the concepts of local evidence and global error rates. The local evidence is embodied in \textit{this} data and concerns the hypotheses of interest…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2019-10-07 Michael J. Lew

Methods for addressing missing data have become much more accessible to applied researchers. However, little guidance exists to help researchers systematically identify plausible missing data mechanisms in order to ensure that these methods…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-29 Adam Davey , Ting Dai

The paper is a naive introduction to descriptive set theory. It is aimed mathematicians without a background in logic. The goal is to provide the basic facts used for applications of descriptive set theory to other areas of mathematics,…

Logic · Mathematics 2021-10-19 Matthew Foreman

Context: Empirical Software Engineering (ESE) drives innovation in SE through qualitative and quantitative studies. However, concerns about the correct application of empirical methodologies have existed since the 2006 Dagstuhl seminar on…

These Course Notes provide an introduction to mathematical proofs for undergraduate students transitioning from computational calculus to abstract mathematics. Topics include propositional logic, proof techniques, mathematical induction,…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Heinz H. Bauschke

In this paper, we further develop the approach, originating in [14 (arXiv:1311.6765),20 (arXiv:1604.02576)], to "computation-friendly" hypothesis testing and statistical estimation via Convex Programming. Specifically, we focus on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-16 Anatoli Juditsky , Arkadi Nemirovski

The aim of this review is to provide a concise overview of some of the generic approaches that have been developed to deal with the statistical description of large systems of interacting dissipative 'units'. The latter notion includes,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-03-08 Eric Bertin

The proliferation of vast quantities of available datasets that are large and complex in nature has challenged universities to keep up with the demand for graduates trained in both the statistical and the computational set of skills…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2020-08-04 Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel , Victoria Ellison

Statistical topic models efficiently facilitate the exploration of large-scale data sets. Many models have been developed and broadly used to summarize the semantic structure in news, science, social media, and digital humanities. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-02 Jian Tang , Cheng Li , Ming Zhang , Qiaozhu Mei

The incorporation of unlabeled data in regression and classification analysis is an increasing focus of the applied statistics and machine learning literatures, with a number of recent examples demonstrating the potential for unlabeled data…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-29 Feng Liang , Sayan Mukherjee , Mike West

This article discusses a number of incorrect statements appearing in textbooks on data analysis, machine learning, or computational methods; the common theme in all these cases is the relevance and application of statistics to the study of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-01-13 Alexandros Gezerlis , Martin Williams