Related papers: Comparison for upper tail probabilities of random …

This paper presents two results concerning uniform confidence intervals for the tail index and the extreme quantile. First, we show that it is impossible to construct a length-optimal confidence interval satisfying the correct uniform…

In previous work Majda and McLaughlin computed explicit expressions for the $2N$th moments of a passive scalar advected by a linear shear flow in the form of an integral over ${\bf R}^N$. In this paper we first compute the asymptotics of…

We study the complexity of heavy-tailed sampling and present a separation result in terms of obtaining high-accuracy versus low-accuracy guarantees i.e., samplers that require only $O(\log(1/\varepsilon))$ versus…

Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ be some i.i.d. observations from a heavy tailed distribution $F$, i.e. such that the common distribution of the excesses over a high threshold $u_n$ can be approximated by a Generalized Pareto Distribution…

We derive in this short report the exponential as well as power decreasing tail estimations for the sums of centered exchangeable random variables, alike ones for the sums of the centered independent ones.

We study in this report the so-called Strictly Subgaussian (SSub) random variables (r.v.), which form a very interest subclass of Subgaussian (Sub) r.v., and obtain the exact exponential bounds for tail of distribution for sums of…

We provide a lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable is exceeding its mean. Our proof employs estimates on the mean absolute deviation and the tail conditional expectation of binomial random variables.

Consider a random polynomial $G_n(z)=\xi_nz^n+...+\xi_1z+\xi_0$ with i.i.d. complex-valued coefficients. Suppose that the distribution of $\log(1+\log(1+|\xi_0|))$ has a slowly varying tail. Then the distribution of the complex roots of…

We provide exact asymptotics for the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P} \{S_{n,r} > x\}$ as $x \to \infty$, for fix $n$, where $S_{n,r}$ is the $r$-trimmed partial sum of i.i.d. St. Petersburg random variables. In particular, we prove that…

We explore the use of higher-order tail area approximations for Bayesian simulation. These approximations give rise to an alternative simulation scheme to MCMC for Bayesian computation of marginal posterior distributions for a scalar…

Given a sequence \xi_1, \xi_2,... of X-valued, exchangeable random elements, let q(\xi^(n)) and p_m(\xi^(n)) stand for posterior and predictive distribution, respectively, given \xi^(n) = (\xi_1,..., \xi_n). We provide an upper bound for…

We derive the tail inequalities between two random variables starting from inequalities between its moment, or more generally between its Lebesgue-Riesz norms, which holds true on certain sets of parameters. We consider some applications…

We discuss the quenched tail estimates for the random walk in random scenery. The random walk is the symmetric nearest neighbor walk and the random scenery is assumed to be independent and identically distributed, non-negative, and has a…

Let $\xi$ be a random integer vector, having uniform distribution \[\mathbf{P} \{\xi = (i_1,i_2,...,i_n) = 1/n^n \} \ \hbox{for} \ 1 \leq i_1,i_2,...,i_n\leq n.\] A realization $(i_1,i_2,...,i_n)$ of $\xi$ is called \textit{good}, if its…

Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…

In this article we study the tail probability of the mass of Gaussian multiplicative chaos. With the novel use of a Tauberian argument and Goldie's implicit renewal theorem, we provide a unified approach to general log-correlated Gaussian…

We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…

We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint…

In this paper we consider the problem of computing tail probabilities of the distribution of a random sum of positive random variables. We assume that the individual variables follow a reproducible natural exponential family (NEF)…

Often, it is required to estimate the probability that a quantity such as toxicity level, plutonium, temperature, rainfall, damage, wind speed, wave size, earthquake magnitude, risk, etc., exceeds an unsafe high threshold. The probability…