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In Bayesian statistics, the highest posterior density (HPD) interval is often used to describe properties of a posterior distribution. As a method for estimating confidence intervals (CIs), the HPD has two main desirable properties.…
Predictive posterior densities (PPDs) are of interest in approximate Bayesian inference. Typically, these are estimated by simple Monte Carlo (MC) averages using samples from the approximate posterior. We observe that the signal-to-noise…
Bayesian predictive probabilities are commonly used for interim monitoring of clinical trials through efficacy and futility stopping rules. Despite their usefulness, calculation of predictive probabilities, particularly in pre-experiment…
Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…
Outliers can seriously distort statistical inference by inducing excessive sensitivity in the likelihood function, thereby compromising the reliability of Bayesian estimation. To address this issue, we develop a robust Bayesian estimation…
Poisson log-linear models are ubiquitous in many applications, and one of the most popular approaches for parametric count regression. In the Bayesian context, however, there are no sufficient specific computational tools for efficient…
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…
We evaluate the robustness of a probabilistic formulation of system identification (ID) to sparse, noisy, and indirect data. Specifically, we compare estimators of future system behavior derived from the Bayesian posterior of a learning…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference by first training a neural posterior estimator (NPE) on prior-simulator pairs, typically through low-dimensional summary statistics, which can then be cheaply reused for…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and synthetic likelihood (SL) techniques have enabled the use of Bayesian inference for models that may be simulated, but for which the likelihood cannot be evaluated pointwise at values of an unknown…
The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes for generating samples from Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm is asymptotically exact, flexible and easy to implement.…
We present a new Subset Simulation approach using Hamiltonian neural network-based Monte Carlo sampling for reliability analysis. The proposed strategy combines the superior sampling of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method with…
We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…
The logistic specification has been used extensively in non-Bayesian statistics to model the dependence of discrete outcomes on the values of specified covariates. Because the likelihood function is globally weakly concave estimation by…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is computationally intensive for complex model simulators. To exploit expensive simulations, data-resampling via bootstrapping can be employed to obtain many artificial datasets at little cost.…
Quantifying the complexity and irregularity of time series data is a primary pursuit across various data-scientific disciplines. Sample entropy (SampEn) is a widely adopted metric for this purpose, but its reliability is sensitive to the…
In the recent paper [5], a Bayesian approach for constructing confidence intervals in monotone regression problems is proposed, based on credible intervals. We view this method from a frequentist point of view, and show that it corresponds…
Pretrained diffusion models are effective priors for Bayesian inverse problems, but posterior sampling with these priors is often costly because data-consistency guidance is applied throughout the full reverse trajectory. Existing methods…
The frequentist method of simulated minimum distance (SMD) is widely used in economics to estimate complex models with an intractable likelihood. In other disciplines, a Bayesian approach known as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is…
Simulation schemes for probabilistic inference in Bayesian belief networks offer many advantages over exact algorithms; for example, these schemes have a linear and thus predictable runtime while exact algorithms have exponential runtime.…