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Process Outcome Prediction entails predicting a discrete property of an unfinished process instance from its partial trace. High-capacity outcome predictors discovered with ensemble and deep learning methods have been shown to achieve top…
It has been shown that a functional interpretation of proofs in mathematical analysis can be given by the product of selection functions, a mode of recursion that has an intuitive reading in terms of the computation of optimal strategies in…
Cricket betting is a multi-billion dollar market. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for models that can predict the outcomes of games and beat the odds provided by bookers. The aim of this study was to investigate to what degree it is…
Game Theory concepts have been successfully applied in a wide variety of domains over the past decade. Sports and games are one of the popular areas of game theory application owing to its merits and benefits in solving complex scenarios.…
Predictions in the social world generally influence the target of prediction, a phenomenon known as performativity. Self-fulfilling and self-negating predictions are examples of performativity. Of fundamental importance to economics,…
We study a dynamic game where an expert sends probabilistic forecasts to a decision-maker. The decision-maker verifies these forecasts using a calibration test based on past data. How should the expert send forecasts to maximize her payoff…
Predicting performance outcomes has the potential to transform training approaches, inform coaching strategies, and deepen our understanding of the factors that contribute to athletic success. Traditional non-automated data analysis in…
The increasing number of spectators and players in e-sports, along with the development of optimized communication solutions and cloud computing technology, has motivated the constant growth of the online game industry. Even though…
In order to address complex systems, apply pattern recongnition on their evolution could play an key role to understand their dynamics. Global patterns are required to detect emergent concepts and trends, some of them with qualitative…
Expert judgment for software effort estimation is oriented toward direct evidences that refer to actual effort of similar projects or activities through experts' experiences. However, the availability of direct evidences implies the…
Prediction-powered inference is a framework for performing valid statistical inference when an experimental dataset is supplemented with predictions from a machine-learning system. The framework yields simple algorithms for computing…
Textbooks on statistics emphasize care and precision, via concepts such as reliability and validity in measurement, random sampling and treatment assignment in data collection, and causal identification and bias in estimation. But how do…
In this paper, we present a new application-focused benchmark dataset and results from a set of baseline Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning models for prediction of match outcomes for games of football (soccer). By doing so we…
Sports analytics -- broadly defined as the pursuit of improvement in athletic performance through the analysis of data -- has expanded its footprint both in the professional sports industry and in academia over the past 30 years. In this…
Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus…
Humans are routinely asked to evaluate the performance of other individuals, separating success from failure and affecting outcomes from science to education and sports. Yet, in many contexts, the metrics driving the human evaluation…
The forecasting of sports events is of broad interest from the applied but also from the theoretical perspective. In this work the question is addressed for the example of the German soccer Bundesliga how a theoretically optimum forecast of…
Forecast of football outcomes in terms of Home Win, Draw and Away Win relies largely on ex ante probability elicitation of these events and ex post verification of them via computation of probability scoring rules (Brier, Ranked…
In this work, we draw attention to a connection between skill-based models of game outcomes and Gaussian process classification models. The Gaussian process perspective enables a) a principled way of dealing with uncertainty and b) rich…
Social predictions do not passively describe the future; they actively shape it. They inform actions and change individual expectations in ways that influence the likelihood of the predicted outcome. Given these dynamics, to what extent can…