Related papers: Exact test for Markov order
The correspondence between the cross-entropy method and the zero-variance approximation to simulate a rare event problem in Markov chains is shown. This leads to a sufficient condition that the cross-entropy estimator is asymptotically…
A discrete time branching process where the offspring distribution is generation-dependent, and the number of reproductive individuals is controlled by a random mechanism is considered. This model is a Markov chain but, in general, the…
A novel data-driven method for formal verification is proposed to study complex systems operating in safety-critical domains. The proposed approach is able to formally verify discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems against temporal logic…
Markov chain analysis is a key technique in formal verification. A practical obstacle is that all probabilities in Markov models need to be known. However, system quantities such as failure rates or packet loss ratios, etc. are often not --…
We propose approaches for testing implementations of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods as well as of general Monte Carlo methods. Based on statistical hypothesis tests, these approaches can be used in a unit testing framework to, for…
We consider the problem of identity testing of Markov chain transition matrices based on a single trajectory of observations under the distance notion introduced by Daskalakis et al. [2018a] and further analyzed by Cherapanamjeri and…
We propose an exact nonparametric inference scheme for the detection of nonlinear determinism. The essential fact utilized in our scheme is that, for a linear stochastic process with jointly symmetric innovations, its ordinary least square…
We examine the problem of exactly or approximately counting all perfect matchings in hereditary classes of nonbipartite graphs. In particular, we consider the switch Markov chain of Diaconis, Graham and Holmes. We determine the largest…
Parametric Markov chains occur quite naturally in various applications: they can be used for a conservative analysis of probabilistic systems (no matter how the parameter is chosen, the system works to specification); they can be used to…
In the context of Markov decision processes running in continuous time, one of the most intriguing challenges is the efficient approximation of finite horizon reachability objectives. A multitude of sophisticated model checking algorithms…
The master equation and, more generally, Markov processes are routinely used as models for stochastic processes. They are often justified on the basis of randomization and coarse-graining assumptions. Here instead, we derive n-th order…
Hidden Markov chains are widely applied statistical models of stochastic processes, from fundamental physics and chemistry to finance, health, and artificial intelligence. The hidden Markov processes they generate are notoriously…
Given independent samples from P and Q, two-sample permutation tests allow one to construct exact level tests when the null hypothesis is P=Q. On the other hand, when comparing or testing particular parameters $\theta$ of P and Q, such as…
How can one determine whether a community-level treatment, such as the introduction of a social program or trade shock, alters agents' incentives to form links in a network? This paper proposes analogues of a two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov…
We consider the structural change in a class of discrete valued time series that the conditional distribution follows a one-parameter exponential family. We propose a change-point test based on the maximum likelihood estimator of the…
We consider continuous-time Markov chain on a finite state space X. We assume X can be clustered into several subsets such that the intra-transition rates within these subsets are of order $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ comparing to the…
We study a simple Markov chain, the switch chain, on the set of all perfect matchings in a bipartite graph. This Markov chain was proposed by Diaconis, Graham and Holmes as a possible approach to a sampling problem arising in Statistics. We…
Given a finite typed rooted tree $T$ with $n$ vertices, the {\em empirical subtree measure} is the uniform measure on the $n$ typed subtrees of $T$ formed by taking all descendants of a single vertex. We prove a large deviation principle in…
We study a class of Markov chains that model the evolution of a quantum system subject to repeated measurements. Each Markov chain in this class is defined by a measure on the space of matrices. It is then given by a random product of…
The performance of recurrence networks and symbolic networks to detect weak nonlinearities in time series is compared to the nonlinear prediction error. For the synthetic data of the Lorenz system, the network measures show a comparable…