Related papers: Exact test for Markov order
We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…
The schemes for the generation of surrogate data in order to test the null hypothesis of linear stochastic process undergoing nonlinear static transform are investigated as to their consistency in representing the null hypothesis. In…
Standard tests for nonlinearity reject the null hypothesis of a Gaussian linear process whenever the data is non-stationary. Thus, they are not appropriate to distinguish nonlinearity from non-stationarity. We address the problem of…
We exhibit an efficient procedure for testing, based on a single long state sequence, whether an unknown Markov chain is identical to or $\varepsilon$-far from a given reference chain. We obtain nearly matching (up to logarithmic factors)…
We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…
Drawing on some recent results that provide the formalism necessary to definite stationarity for infinite random graphs, this paper initiates the study of statistical and learning questions pertaining to these objects. Specifically, a…
The Markov property is widely imposed in analysis of time series data. Correspondingly, testing the Markov property, and relatedly, inferring the order of a Markov model, are of paramount importance. In this article, we propose a…
The surrogate data method is widely applied as a data dependent technique to test observed time series against a barrage of hypotheses. However, often the hypotheses one is able to address are not those of greatest interest, particularly…
Markov chains for probability distributions related to matrix product states and 1D Hamiltonians are introduced. With appropriate 'inverse temperature' schedules, these chains can be combined into a random approximation scheme for ground…
Markov chains are a convenient means of generating realizations of networks, since they require little more than a procedure for rewiring edges. If a rewiring procedure exists for generating new graphs with specified statistical properties,…
Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are…
This paper presents a simple algorithm to check whether reachability probabilities in parametric Markov chains are monotonic in (some of) the parameters. The idea is to construct - only using the graph structure of the Markov chain and…
Markov chain models are used in various fields, such behavioral sciences or econometrics. Although the goodness of fit of the model is usually assessed by large sample approximation, it is desirable to use conditional tests if the sample…
We consider conditional exact tests of factor effects in designed experiments for discrete response variables. Similarly to the analysis of contingency tables, a Markov chain Monte Carlo method can be used for performing exact tests, when…
A statistical test is presented to decide whether data are adequately described by probabilistic functions of finite state Markov chains (''hidden Markov models'') as applied in the analysis of ion channel data. Particularly, the test can…
Verification of infinite-state Markov chains is still a challenge despite several fruitful numerical or statistical approaches. For decisive Markov chains, there is a simple numerical algorithm that frames the reachability probability as…
We describe estimators $\chi_n(X_0,X_1,...,X_n)$, which when applied to an unknown stationary process taking values from a countable alphabet ${\cal X}$, converge almost surely to $k$ in case the process is a $k$-th order Markov chain and…
We present two new methods for estimating the order (memory depth) of a finite alphabet Markov chain from observation of a sample path. One method is based on entropy estimation via recurrence times of patterns, and the other relies on a…
We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first…
How can we monitor, in real time, whether one uncertain prospect has any upside over another? To answer this question, we develop a novel family of sequential, anytime-valid tests for stochastic dominance (SD; also known as stochastic…