Related papers: Why could ice ages be unpredictable?
One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…
Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two…
1) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in southern high latitudes is extremely highly correlated with Antarctic sea ice extent. 2) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in the Arctic is highly correlated with Antarctic or Arctic plus…
Despite its importance in atmospheric science, much remains unknown about the microscopic mechanism of heterogeneous ice nucleation. In this work, we perform hybrid Monte Carlo simulations of the heterogeneous nucleation of ice on a range…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
The Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity has received much attention because of its relevance and importance for global warming policymaking. This paper focuses on the Earth's \emph{thermal inertia time scale} which has received…
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat…
Although our solar system features predominantly circular orbits, the exoplanets discovered so far indicate that this is the exception rather than the rule. This could have crucial consequences for exoplanet climates, both because eccentric…
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model…
The long-time behavior of certain fast-decaying infinite temperature correlation functions on one-, two- and three-dimensional lattices of classical spins with various kinds of nearest-neighbor interactions is studied numerically, and…
A consistent finding of high obliquity simulations is that they are warmer than their low obliquity counterparts when the climate is cold. Ice-albedo feedback has been suggested as a possible mechanism. In this study, we find that warmer…
Using statistical field theory supplemented with molecular dynamics simulations, we consider premelting on the surface of ice as a generic consequence of broken hydrogen bonds at the boundary between the condensed and gaseous phases. A…
Aggregation of ice crystals is a key process governing precipitation. Individual ice crystals exhibit considerable diversity of shape, and a wide range of physical processes could influence their aggregation; despite this we show that a…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…
Implicit in the definition of the classical circumstellar habitable zone (HZ) is the hypothesis that the carbonate-silicate cycle can maintain clement climates on exoplanets with land and surface water across a range of instellations by…
Paleoclimate records provide a critical long-term perspective on natural climate variability, essential for understanding contemporary climate change. However, existing paleoclimate proxies lack the spatial-temporal coverage for studying…
The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the…
The present earth warming up is often explained by the atmosphere gas greenhouse effect. This explanation is in contradiction with the thermodynamics second law. The warming up by greenhouse effect is quite improbable. It is cloud…
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and -…
The fluctuation statistics of the observed sea ice extent during the satellite era are compared with model output from CMIP5 models using a multi-fractal time series method. The two robust features of the observations are that on annual to…