Related papers: Bootstrap Methods for the Empirical Study of Decis…

Multiple systems estimation using a Poisson loglinear model is a standard approach to quantifying hidden populations where data sources are based on lists of known cases. Information criteria are often used for selecting between the large…

Information theory is a practical and theoretical framework developed for the study of communication over noisy channels. Its probabilistic basis and capacity to relate statistical structure to function make it ideally suited for studying…

The inference of causal relationships using observational data from partially observed multivariate systems with hidden variables is a fundamental question in many scientific domains. Methods extracting causal information from conditional…

Decision theories offer principled methods for making choices under various types of uncertainty. Algorithms that implement these theories have been successfully applied to a wide range of real-world problems, including materials and drug…

Bootstrap techniques (also called resampling computation techniques) have introduced new advances in modeling and model evaluation. Using resampling methods to construct a series of new samples which are based on the original data set,…

Foraging is a widespread behavior, and being part of a group may bring several benefits compared to solitary foraging, such as collective pooling of information and reducing environmental uncertainty. Often theoretical models of collective…

A central task in analyzing complex dynamics is to determine the loci of information storage and the communication topology of information flows within a system. Over the last decade and a half, diagnostics for the latter have come to be…

To make decisions we are guided by the evidence we collect, as well as the opinions of friends and neighbors. How do we integrate our private beliefs with information we obtain from our social network? To understand the strategies humans…

In this paper we address the problem of performing statistical inference for large scale data sets i.e., Big Data. The volume and dimensionality of the data may be so high that it cannot be processed or stored in a single computing node. We…

An algorithm is described that enables efficient deterministic approximate computation of the bootstrap distribution for any linear bootstrap method $T_n^*$, alleviating the need for repeated resampling from observations (resp.…

In earlier work, we introduced flexible inference and decision-theoretic metareasoning to address the intractability of normative inference. Here, rather than pursuing the task of computing beliefs and actions with decision models composed…

In this paper we present a technique for using the bootstrap to estimate the operating characteristics and their variability for certain types of ensemble methods. Bootstrapping a model can require a huge amount of work if the training data…

To draw scientifically meaningful conclusions and build reliable models of quantitative phenomena, cause and effect must be taken into consideration (either implicitly or explicitly). This is particularly challenging when the measurements…

Analysis of stochastic models of networks is quite important in light of the huge influx of network data in social, information and bio sciences, but a proper statistical analysis of features of different stochastic models of networks is…

Estimating causal effects from large experimental and observational data has become increasingly prevalent in both industry and research. The bootstrap is an intuitive and powerful technique used to construct standard errors and confidence…

In this paper, we propose standard statistical tools as a solution to commonly highlighted problems in the explainability literature. Indeed, leveraging statistical estimators allows for a proper definition of explanations, enabling…

From the climate system to the effect of the internet on society, chaotic systems appear to have a significant role in our future. Here a method of statistical learning for a class of chaotic systems is described along with underlying…

We propose a model of inference and heuristic decision-making in groups that is rooted in the Bayes rule but avoids the complexities of rational inference in partially observed environments with incomplete information, which are…

The latent class model is a powerful unsupervised clustering algorithm for categorical data. Many statistics exist to test the fit of the latent class model. However, traditional methods to evaluate those fit statistics are not always…

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…